Sunday, October 5, 2008

Third projection

For today's update, we are using the following polls:

Angus Reid - Oct 2-3 (1.00 weight)
EKOS - Sep 30-Oct 2 (0.79 weight)
Ipsos-Reid - Sep 30-Oct 2 (0.79 weight)
Nanos Research - Oct 1-3 [ON, QC, Atl only] (0.93 weight)
Strategic Counsel - Sep 28-29 [ON, QC only] (0.43 weight)
Harris-Decima -Sep 30-Oct 3 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.86 weight)

National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 149 (+25, -3), Lib 70 (-33, +3), BQ 49 (-2, n/c), NDP 36 (+7, n/c), Grn 1 (+1, n/c), Ind 3 (+2, n/c)

Atlantic (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 17 (-3, n/c), CPC 9 (n/c, n/c), NDP 4 (+1, n/c), Grn 1 (+1, n/c), Ind 1 (+1, n/c)

Quebec (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
BQ 49 (-2, n/c), Lib 12 (+1, -1), CPC 11 (+1, n/c), Ind 2 (+1, n/c), NDP 1 (+1, +1)

Ontario (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 57 (+17, -1), Lib 32 (-22, +1), NDP 17 (+5, n/c)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 23 (+3, +1), NDP 3 (n/c, n/c), Lib 2 (-3, -1)

Alberta (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 28 (n/c, n/c)

British Columbia (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 20 (+3, -3), NDP 10 (n/c, -1), Lib 6 (-3, +4)

North (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 1 (+1, n/c), Lib 1 (-1, n/c), NDP 1 (n/c, n/c)

A few remarks...

In the Atlantic, after a few days of roller-coaster, the numbers seem to have stablized. Elizabeth May stays ahead in Central Nova, though by a more narrow margin; May is now 2.08% ahead of MacKay.

In Quebec, this projection shows Mulcair pulling back into the lead for the NDP Outremont by only 0.99%.

The Liberals have surged back to nearly their 2006 results in BC after flirting with a wipeout in the first few projections.

I'll continue to update daily until October 14. I welcome your suggestions if you think any aspect of the formula needs to be adjusted.

A question for readers

There is a slight glitch right now for the projection model in those four ridings where a party is not contesting and endorsing another candidate. The base number for those ridings had the non-contesting party at 0, as they should be, but when the polling data is entered, that number moves, sometimes into negative territory.

Should I:
  1. Disregard the number for the non-contesting party (what I have been doing);
  2. Distribute the gain or loss in the same proportion as I did with the 2006 votes; or
  3. Distribute the gain or loss to the candidate the non-contesting party has endorsed?
NOTE: These projections do not reflect the wishes, nor predictions, of the author. They are based on simple math using the criteria outlined here and here.

3 comments:

nbt said...

Andrew Coyne: "Ignore the daily squiggles of each individual poll — they’re meaningless noise. But average them all together, track them over time, and a picture emerges. And it adds up to trouble for the Conservatives."

Unfortunately, I have to agree. They attacked Dion hard out of the gate (allowing Layton to slip up the middle). But now that Layton has shot himself in the foot by becoming overconfident (along with the conservatives missteps in Quebec on culture) they now see their lead, and their chances for a majority, slowly dwindling. I'm starting to wonder now if it was a good strategy for the conservatives to train their guns on May and Layton in week two as a strong NDP party is a gift to them? Plus, it may have given Dion the breathing room he needed to recover from the barrage of attacks. You know what they say, "when you have your opponent down, don't take your foot off...

Anyway, the next three days will be interesting and will solidify my answer to that question above. As well, it will be interesting to see how their [late] platform is received by the press? Leaving it to the last minute may have backfired?? We'll see.

Manny said...

Too many polls, too much strategy, too few discussions about the issues.

For example, what do you know about the eco-Energy program?

nbpolitico said...

Quite a bit actually, I am in the process of retrofitting my home.

However, I am not in a position to discuss the issues. NBT does from time-to-time. But this is principally a blog about strategy and the status of the campaign. I am sure there are lots of folks who enjoy that angle; if you don't, I am sure that there are other blogs that approach it from a policy angle.