Thursday, October 2, 2008

Projections coming tomorrow

Revision 1 - Oct. 8, 2008

I have completed the projection model and tested it - it's working!

I hope you'll enjoy the results (which I'll update through the election).

Here is the formula, this can be tweaked if it proves way out in left field but so far it seems to work in the testing.

First, I take the 2006 results and apply the following filters as necessary:
  • For first time incumbents:
    • if they held the seat for their own party: no adjustment
    • if they picked up an open seat from another party: +2% from the former party
    • if they defeated an incumbent and are having a rematch: +2.5% from the former incumbent
    • if they defeated an incumbent and are running against a new opponent: +5% from the former party
  • For non-incumbent races:
    • if there was one principal opponent: -2.5% from incumbent's party to opponent
    • if there were two principal opponents: -4% from incumbent's party with +2% to each opponent
  • The Danny Williams factor:
    • In Newfoundland and Labrador: -10% from CPC to principal opponent
    • In Nova Scotia, in CPC held ridings: -5% from CPC to principal opponent
  • Floor crossers:
    • If running for another party: 15% of their former party's share moves with them to their new party
    • If running as an independent: 50% of their former party's share goes with them
  • By-elections*:
    • if all of the principal candidates run again: weighted at 75%
    • if the incumbent runs again: weighted at 50%
    • if the incumbent doesn't reoffer: weighted at 25%
    • *I weighted vote totals, which tend to be lower in by-elections, not the percentages of votes
  • Other factors:
    • Party doesn't offer, endorses other candidate**: 60% to endorsee, balance distributed proportionately to other candidates; REV1 same formula applied to poll adjustments
    • Leader factor: 10% adjustment in favour of leader / against party whose leader ran in riding in 2006
    • **Liberals endorse May; Conservatives endorse Arthur; Greens endorse Dion, Wilfert
Without adding in polls (i.e. we re-ran the 2006 with different candidates), these adjustments would have made the 2006 results come out as follows:

Conservative: 123 (-1)
Liberal: 100 (-3)
Bloc Québécois: 51 (n/c)
New Democratic: 32 (+3)
Green: 0 (n/c)
Independents: 2 (+1)

The first projection will come tomorrow.


le politico said...

Yay! I like projections.

nbt said...


nbt said...

For New Brunswick seat projections, I'm using the '97 general election results and longtime incumbency as a model/benchmark (with a few tweaks, of course). Anyway, here's the results for that election (one of the worst for the Liberals ever):

Fundy Royal: PC J. Herron.
Tobique--Mactaquac: PC G. Bernier
Madawaska--Restigouche: PC J. DUBÉ
Saint John: PC E. Wayne
Beausejour: NDP A. Vautour
MRD: Lib. C. Bradshaw
Miramichi: Lib. C. Hubbard
Acadie-Bathurst: NDP Y. Godin
Charlotte" PC G. Thompson
Fredericton: Lib. A. Scott

*Explanation for 2008 results coming later.