Saturday, October 4, 2008

Second projection

For today's update, we are using the following polls:

Angus Reid - Sep 24-25 (0.07 weight)
EKOS - Sep 30-Oct 2 (1.00 weight)
Ipsos-Reid - Sep 30-Oct 2 (1.00 weight)
Nanos Research - Sep 30-Oct 2 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight)
Strategic Counsel - Sep 28-29 [ON, QC only] (0.64 weight)
Harris-Decima -Sep 29-Oct 2 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight)

National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 152 (+28, +10), Lib 67 (-36, -5), BQ 49 (-2, n/c), NDP 36 (+7, -6), Grn 1 (+1, +1), Ind 3 (+2, n/c)

Atlantic (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 17 (-3, -5), CPC 9 (n/c, +6), NDP 4 (+1, -2), Grn 1 (+1, +1), Ind 1 (+1, n/c)

Quebec (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
BQ 49 (-2, n/c), Lib 13 (+2, +1), CPC 11 (+1, n/c), Ind 2 (+1, n/c), NDP 0 (n/c, -1)

Ontario (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 58 (+18, n/c), Lib 31 (-23, n/c), NDP 17 (+5, n/c)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 22 (+2, n/c), Lib 3 (-2, n/c), NDP 3 (n/c, n/c)

Alberta (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 28 (n/c, +1), NDP 0 (n/c, -1)

British Columbia (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 23 (+6, +3), NDP 11 (+1, -2), Lib 2 (-7, -1)

North (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 1 (+1, n/c), Lib 1 (-1, n/c), NDP 1 (n/c, n/c)

A few remarks...

In Alberta, the Tories re-solidify their stranglehold, robbing the NDP of the seat that was projected there last time.

In the Atlantic, the Conservatives make up the ground they had lost in the last projection but Elizabeth May pulls ahead in Central Nova winning by just under 3 points over MacKay with the NDP placing a close third.

In Quebec, this projection shows the NDP losing their toe-hold, with Mulcair losing Outremont by only 0.72%.

I'll continue to update daily until October 14. I welcome your suggestions if you think any aspect of the formula needs to be adjusted.

NOTE: These projections do not reflect the wishes, nor predictions, of the author. They are based on simple math using the criteria outlined here and here.


nuna d. above said...

Putting the latest Harris-Decima numbers in the Hill & Knowlton election predictor, the Greens lose Central Nova but win Vancouver Quadra. The NDP pick up a seat in Sask. Trudeau and Ignatieff lose their seats. The latest Nanos numbers add up to 101 per cent, so I don't know how accurate a projection would be, who do you take the numbers from.

le politico said...

Yay, projections! Hmm..things seem better for the CPC than I would have thought.

If they end up anywhere from 150 to 154, at least 5-6+ Grits will cross the floor for 4 years of job security.

nbpolitico said...

Nuna - as explained in the previous posts, I have adjusted the base results from 2006 so it wouldn't be the same as plugging the H&K predictor, plus I do it on a regional basis and with an average of all recent polls.

There is nothing wrong with numbers adding to 101, it is due to rounding.

If the results were:
CPC 35.5
Lib 25.5
NDP 20.5
Grn 9.5
BQ 9.0
And it was rounded off to the nearest whole numbers you would get:
CPC 36
Lib 26
NDP 21
Grn 10
BQ 9

And it would add to 102.

I get my numbers from each of the pollsters websites.

nbt said...

Those Quebec numbers, for some reason, strike me as eerily (election day) accurate. I just have a hunch.