As an avid Joe Biden supporter, it is a bit awkward for me to wade in on a plagiarism issue but, here goes...
One of two things happened today:
1.) the Liberals fluked out and made the connection between the Howard speech and the Harper speech; or
2.) the Liberals released something that they had been sitting on for some time and had been waiting for a strategic moment to release.
I would be the first person to tell you that this is a non-issue, a non-story and really warrants no more than a casual side-bar reference in the newspaper.
Few politicians write their own speeches in whole, some but not many work on original drafts written by staff, most simply rehearse and read speeches written entirely by others. Any politician who would fault Stephen Harper for reading from a prepared text ought to reinforce the windows in their glass house first.
Leaving that aside, the media loves this sort of non-story (issues are hard too cover and too boring to sell papers) so suddenly, it is a story.
I think that, going back to my earlier two options, this is #2. The timing would seem otherwise way too coincidental. If the Liberals know what they are doing (this remains to be seen) then they have played this out really well.
It looks this way to me:
- they have found a story that puts Stephen Harper's previous support of the Iraq War in the news;
- they have released it the day before the first leaders' debate, knowing that certainly Gilles Duceppe and likely Elizabeth May and Jack Layton will not be able to resist pouncing on it;
- they had it released not by the leader, but by a high-profile surrogate-candidate.
If they are smart and this is actually part of a plan, Dion will stay way above the fold on this. In the debate, three leaders will look petty droning on about childish plagiarism allegations, the prime minister will be forced to defend his previous support of the Iraq invasion and Dion will be able to remain above the fray. For the first time in this campaign, he might even look like a leader.
This could have been a brilliant Hail Mary pass. I will watch the execution with considerable curiosity.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
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I have reincarnated this old blog and will be following both the national as well as the local developments in the New Brunswick region leading up to the 2011 federal election.
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4 comments:
To be honest, based on what I’ve seen from the Liberal organization so far, I’m not sure they have the depth to carry out #2 … unless they’ve called in some veteran organizers who understand what the game is all about, which Dion and his immediate coterie don’t appear to have in hand.
I disagree with you about the non-news aspects of this story. If the Tories hadn’t made such a big deal out of responsibility, integrity and trust being the cornerstone of Harper’s campaign, then the story wouldn’t have developed the legs it has. But when you have a leader being portrayed as the epitome of virtue, then yeah, it needs to be told. Regardless of the process involved, Harper is ultimately responsible for what he says.
Interesting to note in the Globe & Mail story you cited that one of Harper’s boys kept saying it was a busy, busy week when the speech was given. Turns out the record shows Steve gave only ONE speech in the House that week and this was it.
At least we know George was happy with it! LOL
I agree with most of your proposed strategy except this part, "If they are smart and this is actually part of a plan, Dion will stay way above the fold on this."
With his leadership index numbers teetering barely above that of Gilles Duceppe and Elizabeth May, with Canadians not trusting him to deliver his promises (Harper leads at almost a 2-to-1 clip) and the perception out there being that he can not defend nor lead on his most prized policy, the Green Shift, I think it is imperative that he not be on the sidelines for anything for the remainder of the camapaign.
If the Liberals chose to use the "reverse coattails" strategy while going neg, then that's fine. But don't be surprised if Canadians continue to view the leader in the same light, b/c it's human nature to view a follower as just that, a follower.
IMO, Dion needs to somehow thrust himself into the debate as a leader. If he doesn't do that right away after the debate, he's toast. And the rest of his team will find themselves scurrying for survival.
three leaders will look petty droning on about childish plagiarism allegations, the prime minister will be forced to defend his previous support of the Iraq invasion and Dion will be able to remain above the fray.
20 quatloos says Dion tries to take advantage but totally mangles it.
Another 20 quatloos says that May drowns out Dion on both the environment and carbon shifts and makes him look like her deputy leader.
Both Rae and Iggy are posturing for the leadership of the Libs. post Dion.
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