Overall, the effect of this debate on voters’ intentions is mild. Nearly two in ten (15%) English-speaking Canadians who watched the debate say that they have changed their mind about who to vote for on October 14th as a result of viewing the debate.That means the NDP could get a bounce of up to 5.6%, the Liberals up to 3.9%, the Greens up to 3.8% and the Conservatives up to 1.4%. I say "up to" because each parties gains would be coming at the expense of others.
Among those who changed their vote, 37% say they would now vote NDP, 26% say they would now Liberal, 25% say they would now vote Green, and 9% say they would now vote Conservative.
Ipsos polls tend to be more favourable to the Conservatives than most, so this looks to be quite good for the opposition parties. One presumes though that the NDP and Green votes are coming mostly at the expense of the Liberals so it remains to be seen how much of a net bounce they would get out of this.
As a result, depending on how this breaks out, it is conceivable, and even likely, we will see the NDP and Greens gain votes at the expense of the Liberals and, to a lesser extent, the Conservatives. Worth paying close attention to the first polls that have begin dates of Oct 4, likely out by Monday.
I have reincarnated this old blog and will be following both the national as well as the local developments in the New Brunswick region leading up to the 2011 federal election.
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As a result, depending on how this breaks out, it is conceivable, and even likely, we will see the NDP and Greens gain votes at the expense of the Liberals and, to a lesser extent, the Conservatives. Worth paying close attention to the first polls that have begin dates of Oct 4, likely out by Monday.
Great point, nbpolitico. As Peter Donolo said yesterday, their is no clear movement on the left (yet) to coalesce around one party in an effort to stop Harper and the conservatives. In other words, when picture becomes more clearer next week of a possible Tory majority, will support from the "parked Green vote" bleed over to the Liberals or the NDP. Conventional wisdom says the former, but will that trend reverse itself this time? That's the thousand dollar question.
Isn't 2 in 10, 20%?
I think the NDP vote will peel away to the Greens and Liberals.
Isn't 2 in 10, 20%?
Not necessarily in pollster speak. A 15% sub-sample is probably so small that there is only one significant digit so they show the percentage but when refering to it are rounding to the nearest 10.
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