Monday, October 6, 2008

Fourth projection

For today's update, we are using the following polls:

Angus Reid - Oct 2-3 (0.79 weight)
EKOS - Oct 3-5 (1.00 weight)
Ipsos-Reid - Sep 30-Oct 2 (0.57 weight)
Nanos Research - Oct 3-5 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight)
Strategic Counsel - Sep 28-29 [ON, QC only] (0.21 weight)
Harris-Decima -Oct 2-5 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight)

National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 139 (+15, -10), Lib 75 (-28, +5), BQ 49 (-2, n/c), NDP 41 (+12, +5), Grn 1 (+1, n/c), Ind 3 (+2, n/c)

Atlantic (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 17 (-3, n/c), CPC 8 (-1, -1), NDP 5 (+2, +1), Grn 1 (+1, n/c), Ind 1 (+1, n/c)

Quebec (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
BQ 49 (-2, n/c), Lib 13 (+2, +1), CPC 11 (+1, n/c), Ind 2 (+1, n/c), NDP 0 (n/c, -1)

Ontario (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 48 (+8, -9), Lib 39 (-15, +7), NDP 19 (+7, +2)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 23 (+3, n/c), NDP 3 (n/c, n/c), Lib 2 (-3, n/c)

Alberta (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 28 (n/c, n/c)

British Columbia (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 21 (+4, +1), NDP 13 (+3, +3), Lib 2 (-7, -4)

North (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 1 (n/c, +1), NDP 1 (n/c, n/c), CPC 0 (n/c, -1)

A few remarks...

The Conservatives have, after enjoying a few strong days of polling, slipped back essentially to where they stood in my first projection 4 days ago (that projection showed 142-72-49-42-3-0), far from majority territory.

The race in Outremont, Quebec is one of the closest and volatile in this election according to the model. It has changed hands in every single projection so far. Presently, it shows as going Liberal by 0.3%.

In Ontario, both Nanos and Harris-Decima (two of our three new polls), show the Conservatives slipping into second place which has hurt their totals there. The NDP have also surged to 19 seats, thanks to a projected-near-sweep of Northern Ontario.

Despite a resurgance yesterday, the Liberals have slipped back to just two seats in British Columbia.

I'll continue to update daily until October 14. I welcome your suggestions if you think any aspect of the formula needs to be adjusted.

A question for readers (repeated)

There is a slight glitch right now for the projection model in those four ridings where a party is not contesting and endorsing another candidate. The base number for those ridings had the non-contesting party at 0, as they should be, but when the polling data is entered, that number moves, sometimes into negative territory.

Should I:
  1. Disregard the number for the non-contesting party (what I have been doing);
  2. Distribute the gain or loss in the same proportion as I did with the 2006 votes; or
  3. Distribute the gain or loss to the candidate the non-contesting party has endorsed?
NOTE: These projections do not reflect the wishes, nor predictions, of the author. They are based on simple math using the criteria outlined here and here.

4 comments:

nuna d. above said...

5 NDP seats in Atlantic Canada. Do you see them picking one up in Nfld?

nbt said...

In Ontario, both Nanos and Harris-Decima (two of our three new polls), show the Conservatives slipping into second place which has hurt their totals there. The NDP have also surged to 19 seats, thanks to a projected-near-sweep of Northern Ontario.

What's your thoughts on this? Could Ian Brodie be right? Is a majority a non-starter for the Tories b/c of their lack of support in battleground ridings within the three main Canadian cities (Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver).

Three regions they desperately need to breakthrough in in order to go over the top. I'm not sure it is mathematically possible at the numbers they've been polling at the last two or three days? It should be an interesting week.

Rob said...

Do you see them picking one up in Nfld?

St John's East.

nbpolitico said...

Nuna/Rob - This projection does show them winning St. John's East by a narrow margin. There are a number of pick up opportunities for the NDP - Central Nova, Dartmouth and South Shore-St. Margaret's among them.

NBT - Even as the CPC slips in polls, they remain well better positioned in Ontario than in 2006. This projection shows them picking up 5 seats in 905 over and above what they won in 2006, certainly not a breakthrough but still an improvement.