Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Day 32: Quick hitters are back baby!

Moi. For stating the "reverse coattail" strategy had no chance for success. Not only did it work in stabilizing Dion's base support, it has now put him in a position where he can bring some of the marginal ridings along for the ride on his own coattails. Yes, I realize there will be a lot of folks out there who will say it had nothing to do with the Liberal strategy and all to do with Harper's own self-inflicted wounds; even so, you still can't discount the fact that the Liberals strategy worked in keeping them around to fight another day.

Policy loser
: Conservative platform. Not only is it late coming, there are way to many pictures (some forty in all of Harper photo ops). Anyway, let Macleans' editor Andrew Coyne explain (since I am lock, stock and barrel in agreement): "Much of it is old news, having been unveiled already in the course of the campaign (or indeed announced in previous budgets). Some of it is wildly wrong — adding yet another regional development agency, pouring yet more subsidies into the auto and aerospace sinkholes..." Read more.

Winner: Conservative Peter Mackay for having his mom come out in the paper as a "Raging Granny" and anti-war advocate. There's no question this will help position him as a Tory who was brought up by someone with considerable empathy and understanding. And for someone in a defense portfolio who needs to court Liberals in that riding to win, it's not a bad thing and doesn't hurt. Plus, when your leader is struggling with his own "empathy deficit" at a national level (L. Ian coined the phrase), you need to pull out all the stops. Keep your eyes on nbpolitico's daily polling in Central Nova, this one is definitely going to be close.

Funny, I see Harper is now playing the mom card.

Winner: Obviously Liberal leader Stephane Dion for getting up off the mat and somehow making this thing interesting. Remember, many big name conservatives in 2003 didn't step up to plate and run because they thought Harper would get waxed by juggernaut Paul Martin. Well, could the same thing happen in 2008? Let me tell you, if it does, you can all but kiss a possible Frank McKenna prime ministerial run goodbye as he doesn't have the years to wait it out since he is already in his late 60s. Anyway, what else can be said other than minority governments definitely bite for aspiring leaders.

Winners: Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe and NL Premier Danny Williams. I don't agree with their tactics (that is for sure), but as in love and war, in politics all is fair game and it would seem their very aggressive and negative ABC campaigns are getting through to the electorate in both of their perspective provinces. And with Harper needing to breakthrough big time in Quebec, he can't be pleased with this. Let's hope, for his sake, it doesn't come down to those lost NL seats and the one squandered in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley.

Losers: CRA pollsters for issuing an obvious rogue poll (and then trying to hide that fact). With federal Liberal support increasing dramatically in every poll over the last week (see Harris/Decima, Nanos, Strategic Counsel's perception numbers), they come out bragging in the Telegraph Journal (who co-sponsored the poll btw) about how their data projects conservatives to pick up seats in New Brunswick. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see this scenario pan out just as much as the next Tory, but it's a little hackish to believe that it is so, esdpecially when there is so much data to suggest otherwise. I mean honestly, anyone that would put a great deal of weight on just one week of polling with a week left of critical campaigning, is a little naive to say the least. Time to go to a rolling nightly or a weekly one, CRA. Either that, or stay out of the game when elections come around.


Anonymous said...

There could be another change in the polls nationally in favour of the conservative platform, which would put them right where CRA had them.

Rob said...

What's the context of Duceppe shaking hands with Randy?

bill said...

Swapping cheeseburgers for votes!!lol

henry j said...

With the NDP faring well in central Nova, there really is no other place to go for Peter. Which is probably why this email was issued.

Anonymous said...

Man, Duceppe *really* knows how to stage a photo-op. Next: Gilles goes skydiving! :-)

Anonymous said...

Good heavens man, get your facts straight.

Frank McKenna is NOT in his late 60's. He just turned 60 last Jan. 19, and therefore has many more productive years. How do I know? Because I share the same birthday, but I am one year younger. I don't know if Frank would want to become involved in Federal politics, but if he does, he has my vote!

nbt said...

I don't know if Frank would want to become involved in Federal politics, but if he does, he has my vote!

So he's got 10 years or so. Not a lot of time in politics, especially if Dion were to win as that would cover at least seven years until another Liberal gets a shot at it. And that's taking into account that his minority fails quickly and he loses. (Obviously, he would fight the ensuing election)

If he doesn't lose, it's game over for poor Frankie boy.

Anonymous said...

Maybe Peter should try to bring in his ex-belinda?

Howard said...

All the Conservatives have to do is bring up the ridiculous carbon tax. Bob Rae has to be pinned down about what he said about a delayed implementation. Does that mean he will implement a green carbon tax on fuel and delay or omit the neutral part if he has to increase revenue to avoid a deficit? These are tough economic times. We are in a crisis so Dion says. I believe he is looking for an out in case he is elected. If the media would kindly grill him on this question. I would like to know before I cast my ballot.

iain g. foulds said...

...redistribution of wealth. That is all that platform is.