Friday, October 10, 2008

Eighth projection

For today's update. We are using the following polls:

Angus Reid - Oct 6-7 (0.79 weight)
EKOS - Oct 7-9 (1.00 weight)
Nanos Research - Oct 7-9 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight)
Harris-Decima -Oct 6-9 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight)

National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 133 (+9, n/c), Lib 82 (-21, -1), BQ 49 (-2, n/c), NDP 41 (+12, +2), Ind 3 (+2, n/c), Grn 0 (n/c, -1)

Atlantic (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 22 (+2, n/c), NDP 6 (+3, +1), CPC 3 (-6, n/c), Ind 1 (+1, n/c), Grn 0 (n/c, -1)

Quebec (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
BQ 49 (-2, n/c), Lib 12 (+1, -1), CPC 11 (+1, n/c), Ind 2 (+1, n/c), NDP 1 (+1, +1)

Ontario (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 46 (+6, n/c), Lib 41 (-13, n/c), NDP 19 (+7, n/c)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 21 (+1, +2), NDP 5 (+2, +1), Lib 2 (-3, -1)

Alberta (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 28 (n/c, n/c)

British Columbia (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 24 (+7, +1), NDP 9 (-1, -1), Lib 3 (-6, +1)

North (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 2 (n/c, n/c), NDP 1 (n/c, n/c)

A few remarks...

The race remains stable, the widely covered CTV Atlantic interview with Dion last night may cause some final day shifts however.

Elizabeth May has fallen back in today's update, Central Nova shows as: 37.5% NDP, 36.8% Grn.

Tom Mulcair has pulled ahead in Outrement, the model shows that result as: 33.4% NDP, 33.0% Lib.

Today's chart:

I'll continue to update daily until October 14. I welcome your suggestions if you think any aspect of the formula needs to be adjusted.

NOTE: These projections do not reflect the wishes, nor predictions, of the author. They are based on simple math using the criteria outlined here and here.


Anonymous said...


Becket said...

After that interview, I can do nothing but shake my head with a laughing smile on my face.

Neal Ford said...

I'm asking everyone who predicts such sky high seat totals for The Socialist Horde, where are those seats coming from?

I can only see 37 seats in play, and they won't win 'em all!

St Johns east Mount pearl: Jack harris to win on his own reputation, and is being helped by Danny Millions ABC movement.
Sackville Eastern Shore: Peter Stoffer: He wins because he is a dmned good consitutency MP. The moment he declines to run again, that riding is in play again.
Halifax: The ghost of Alexa still has some influence
Acadie Bathurst: Yvon Godin has it as long a he wants it.
Outremont: I personally think it goes back to the Grits, mostly due to Bloc resurgence, but t remains a real possibility of a hold.
Gatineau: remote, but the only other hope in QC for the Dis.
Ottawa centre: Dewar beats Collenette easily.
Toronto Danforth: Layton's riding. Enough said.
TrinitySpadina: A riding where I spend a great deal of time soaking up Chinese culture and food... Olivia Chow to hold easily.
Beaches east yok: There's talk of Marylin Churley pulling it off, but I expect Minna will hold.
Parkdale high park: Sorry, but i expect Kennedy to take down Nash.
Hamiltons: Ham entre going NDP
Ham East: Stoney Creek: Copps has puther people behind Liberal candidate.. not a sure hold for Dips
Ham. Mountain: Again, a three way race.
Timmins-james bay: Charlie Angus in a walk
London fanshawe: Mathyssen in a walk.
Windsor West: Brian Masse in a landslide
Windsor tecumseh: Joe Comartin. Easy win.
Sault Ste marie: Tony martin easily wins.
The Thunder bay ridings are in play, but all really close.
Watch Nickel belt, and Algoma manitoulin as well. Close races there.
Elmwood transcona: Blaikies Coattails will carry NDP here
Winnipeg Centre: Pat Martin the loudmouth to hold.
Winnipeg North Judy W-L easy winner.
Churchill: Could go either to Lib IncumbentTina Keeper or back to Dips.
Sask: Layton does not play well on the prairies, so preditions abut Saskatoon rsetown Biggar probably will not pan out . Nettie Wiebe might be third time lucky, but I expect a tory hold, because of sheer strength out west.
BC is the potentuial goldmine.
They will hold:
Skeena Bulkley Valey
Burnaby-new Westminster
New Westminster Coquitlam
Victoria, nanaimo Cowichan
Vancouver eat: Come on Libby Davies losing? She'd be last diper standing in a wipeout!
Vancouver Kingsway
BC Southern Interior: Tough call there. Incumbent Dpper Atamenko in a tough fight in a traditionally Tory riding. Whether he holds depends on how the vote breaks. both parties arevery strng asa whole in BC, though the CP has an advantage.

Therefore I see the Dippers in play in only 37 ridings... no more than that, and in at least 10 of them, they're underdogs.

Neal Ford said...

My projections are now up at

Riding by riding.....

Totals: CP 147 Lib 87 Separatist slimebags: 44 Socialist Horde: 28

Ind: 2