Monday, October 13, 2008

NBT's 2008 Election Projections

National results (Seats, % Votes)
CPC 136 (35.7), Lib 87 (27.8), BQ 49 (10.8), NDP 34 (19.9) , Ind 2 (0.9), Grn 0 (4.8)

Atlantic Canada (Seats, % Votes)
Lib 22 (35.9) , CPC 6 (29.7), NDP 3 (18.3), Ind 1 (0.9), Grn 0 (5.6)

Quebec (Seats, % Votes)
BQ 49 (41.0), Lib 15 (27.5) , CPC 10 (21.1) , Ind 1 (1.2) , NDP 0 (13.6)

Ontario (Seats, % Votes)
CPC 49 (36.9) , Lib 40 (32.3), NDP 17 (19.5) Grn 0 (5.4)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (Seats, % Votes)
CPC 25 (42.3), NDP 2 (21.5), Lib 1 (22.3) Grn 0 (4.1)

Alberta (Seats, % Votes)
CPC 28 (54.4), Lib 0 (20.5), NDP 0 (18.7) Grn 0 (3.9)

British Columbia (Seats, % Votes)
CPC 18 (41.8), NDP 11 (17.2), Lib 7 (28.8) Grn (6.7)

North (Seats, % Votes)
Lib 2 (38.5), NDP 1 (30.9) CPC 0 (21.6)

A few quick speculations...

There was much chatter around Jack Layton and whether or not he and his NDP party would replace the Liberals as Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Several polls for much of the campaign showed that Layton was one of the most popular party leaders in Canada ahead of Dion, May and Duceppe. Nonetheless, he will not be successful in translating this into electoral success, much like Broadbent in '88, since I believe the Liberals will reap most of the benefits from an impending Tory majority. In other words, a fair size chunk of last minute, undecided voters will jump over to the Liberals in order to stop Harper.

You could say that New Democrat Thomas Mulclair's by-election win in Outremont was anything but routine, but one thing that may surprise the dippers once again on this one is how short lived his victory will end up. Liberals regain their stronghold tonight and put an end to the NDP's dreams of forming a modest caucus in La belle province.

Liberals make it a clean sweep of Atlantic Canadian islands (Newfoundland, Cape Breton Island and Prince Edward Island). First time this has happened since confederation.

Nova Scotia and New Brunswick keep the status quo, with the exception of electing Bill Casey as an independent and electing one more Tory to the Atlantic NB caucus. Oh yeah, and another thing, for those that thought Pictou-Antigonish-Guysborough (now Central Nova) would be close, you are wrong. Peter in a cakewalk (1000+ vote margin).

Aside from Central Nova, here are 15 ridings to keep your eye on tonight. Anyway, for all those that dropped by Paint the Political Picture, nbpolitico and I can't say how much we appreciate all your comments, opinions and discussion.

Oh, and one last thing, I second this statement by Tim Powers: "... if you do one thing today, make it out to vote. I am just walking over to do it myself now. There is much at stake in this election. There are clear choices. Get some skin in the game and vote.A big congratulations to everyone from every party who put their name on the ballot. It is a courageous and commendable thing to do. Most of us have no clue about the sacrifices you have made to try to serve Canada. Good on you all. Politics matters and you have made the effort to make a difference." That said, have a great election night folks!!


Not only are Gerry and I close in policy thought, it would seem that we have the same predictions and gut feelings as well. So if we're wrong, we'll still end up being right.

Don't expect voter turnout to break any records after tonight's count comes in. As I see it, it will most likely decline from the improved 2006 levels. Probably around sixty per cent or so...maybe even lower. I mean, honestly, when there's that many people out there who aren't motivated by any of the current political leaders, it's bound to happen.


bill said...

Quite a pickle he has himself in.

jajakoom said...

nbt, didja see the latest: "Harper, who defeated a minority Liberal administration in January 2006, foresees another election relatively soon. "Obviously the Parliament won't last four years," he told CTV television on Sunday." ?????

le politico said...

Harper would be happy with 130 seats, which he should get.

And the next election will take place 2 months after the Libs pick a new leader.

I'm just happy that apparently in both cpc and lib polling, it looks like Garth Turner is going down to defeat. So too, unfortunately, is Gerard Kennedy.

iain g. foulds said...

...just short of a majority. 153 seats. With the independent in Quebec voting with the Tories, Bill Casey's seat is all that more important.

Anonymous said...

The carbon tax discussion was a big flop in this election. And because of this, there is a good chance that May might finish third in Central Nova.

Worse then her second place finish in the London North by-election.

Rob said...

I'd love to see the Conservatives come close with 145 or 150 seats.

That way, I can truly appreciate the Prime Minister's statement that he doesn't need Newfoundland and Labrador to win an election.

Howard said...

There's talk about a possible Liberal victory in Halifax. Keep your eye on that one.

henry j said...

This is looking a lot like the '97 election in reverse.

bill said...

I agree with Bart the fish.

jajakoom said...

Gawd, I hope you're wrong! :-)

nbt said...

Not to worry koom, I almost always am.

nbt said...


Good point.

Think of it this way, if Mackay loses, we are left with Keddy, Moore, Allen and Thompson.

Not exactly the types to speak out against Harper on behalf of NBers (and Atlantic Canadians).