Monday, October 13, 2008

Final projection

After a little break for Thanksgiving weekend, here is the final update based on 7 new polls.

Angus Reid - Oct 8-10 (0.71 weight)
EKOS - Oct 10-12 (1.00 weight)
Ipsos-Reid - Oct 7-9 (0.57 weight)
Nanos Research - Oct 10-12 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight)
Strategic Counsel - Oct 10-11 [ON, QC only] (0.93 weight)
Harris-Decima -Oct 9-12 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight)
Segma - Oct 5-9 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.43 weight)


National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 129 (+5, -4), Lib 85 (-18, +3), BQ 50 (-1, +1), NDP 41 (+12, n/c), Ind 3 (+2, n/c), Grn 0 (n/c, n/c)

Atlantic (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 22 (+2, n/c), NDP 6 (+3, n/c), CPC 3 (-6, n/c), Ind 1 (+1, n/c), Grn 0 (n/c, n/c)

Quebec (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
BQ 50 (-1, +1), Lib 12 (+1, n/c), CPC 11 (+1, n/c), Ind 2 (+1, n/c), NDP 0 (n/c, -1)

Ontario (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 47 (+7, +1), Lib 41 (-13, n/c), NDP 18 (+6, -1)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 21 (+1, n/c), NDP 5 (+2, n/c), Lib 2 (-3, n/c)

Alberta (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 27 (-1, -1), NDP 1 (+1, +1)

British Columbia (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 20 (+3, -4), NDP 10 (n/c, +1), Lib 6 (-3, +3)

North (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 2 (n/c, n/c), NDP 1 (n/c, n/c)

A few remarks...

The final projection echoes the buzz that the NDP will pick up a seat in Alberta and the conventional wisdom that Elizabeth May will lose in Central Nova - however it shows both of these things happening by less than a percentage point. In other words, it says these things with no certainty whatsoever.

We also show a Conservatve collapse in Atlantic Canada offset by gains in Ontario and British Columbia, allowing them to essentially break even, while the NDP grows at the expense of Liberal totals.

I've posted a chart of which seats are projected for each party and the whole projection system for your interest and in the interests of accountability.

No matter who for, don't forget to vote tomorrow. I hope you enjoyed these projection and the musings of NBT and I over the past few weeks. Thanks for stopping by.

Today's chart:


NOTE: These projections do not reflect the wishes, nor predictions, of the author. They are based on simple math using the criteria outlined here and here.

6 comments:

Rob said...

Crowfoot as a CPC hold = Bold pick.

Also interesting to see that garth.ca will still be in Parliament tomorrow. I heard rumblings that he was going down.

nbpolitico said...

Unfortunately this beast is blind to most local factors. Garth Turner's missteps may or may not have affected him at home, and either way this model would be oblivious. Similarly, in Fredericton the Greens will almost certainly place a strong third and the NDP a distant fourth due to a strong campaign by the former and a disaterous campaign by the latter. But, once again, this thing is blind as a bat. Gerard Kennedy may or may not win in Parkdale-High Park but he certainly won't lose by the 16 points that the model shows a 'generic Liberal' losing by there. Et cetera.

In other words, I am pretty happy with the national numbers, can swallow the regional numbers but think you ought to take the individual seats with a heaping teaspoon of salt.

Rob said...

Let's jump the gun for a second.

Will there be any rumblings within the Conservative Party about a failure to win a majority, should such a thing happen tonight?

We all assume Dion will go down quickly if he doesn't do well. What about the Prime Minister?

nbt said...

Will there be any rumblings within the Conservative Party about a failure to win a majority, should such a thing happen tonight?

Rumblings? And who would that be? Is there someone in his caucus with a set he should know about?

They'll need a forklift to get the guy out of the prime minister's chair. And at the moment, all they have at their disposal is a toothpick.

nbpolitico said...

I can't imagine any rumblings. A) it is incredibly dangerous to change leaders when heading a minority govt - it adds greater instability to an already too unstable environment, B) as NBT suggests less gently, there are no logicial successors. MacKay is damaged goods, Flaherty is unilingual and deemed to right-wing to sell to the majority of Canadians, Prentice maybe but his French is weak and two Calgarians in a row may be too much for the rest of the party to swallow.

Rob said...

Rumblings? And who would that be? Is there someone in his caucus with a set he should know about?

Wouldn't this election be strike two for Stephen Harper for failing to get the majority? I can't imagine open rebellion, but there must be someone w/ enough ambition in the party who thinks they can bring home the bacon.

He's probably not as clueless as Joe Clark to walk away from the leadership, so that toothpick will have to take a lot of torque to get him out of the chair.