Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Ridings to watch

Here are nbpolitico's ridings to watch for the 2008 federal election. Polls are closed in the Atlantic and I am watching the returns. I'll follow the Election Act and not let you in on the secrets, but in the mean time, here are the seats that my projections showed within 5 points or "the ridings to watch" (parties listed in the order the projection model shows them placing):
  1. St. John's East: NDP vs. Lib
  2. Central Nova: NDP vs. Grn
  3. Dartmouth--Cole Harbour: Lib vs. NDP
  4. Honoré-Mercier: CPC vs. BQ
  5. LaSalle--Émard: BQ vs. Lib
  6. Outremont: Lib vs. NDP
  7. Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques: Ind vs. BQ vs. Lib
  8. Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing: NDP vs. Lib
  9. Beaches--East York: NDP vs. Lib
  10. Brampton West: Lib vs. CPC
  11. Brant: CPC vs. Lib
  12. Etobicoke--Lakeshore: Lib vs. CPC
  13. Guelph: CPC vs. Lib
  14. Kenora: Lib vs. NDP vs. CPC
  15. London West: CPC vs. Lib
  16. Mississauga South: CPC vs. Lib
  17. Mississauga--Erindale: Lib vs. CPC
  18. Newmarket--Aurora: CPC vs. Lib
  19. Oak Ridges--Markham: Lib vs. CPC
  20. Oakville: CPC vs. Lib
  21. Oshawa: CPC vs. NDP
  22. Ottawa South: Lib vs. CPC
  23. Sudbury: Lib vs. NDP
  24. Thunder Bay--Rainy River: NDP vs. Lib
  25. Welland: NDP vs. Lib vs. CPC
  26. Churchill: NDP vs. Lib
  27. Saint-Boniface: CPC vs. Lib
  28. Winnipeg South Centre: Lib vs. CPC
  29. Palliser: CPC vs. NDP
  30. Regina--Qu'Appelle: CPC vs. NDP
  31. Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar: NDP vs. CPC
  32. Edmonton--Strathcona: NDP vs. CPC
  33. Burnaby--Douglas: NDP vs. CPC
  34. Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca: Lib vs. CPC vs. NDP
  35. Newton--North Delta: Lib vs. CPC vs. NDP
  36. North Vancouver: CPC vs. Lib
  37. Richmond: CPC vs. Lib
  38. Vancouver Island North: NDP vs. CPC
  39. Vancouver Kingsway: Lib vs. NDP
  40. Vancouver Quadra: Lib vs. CPC
  41. Nunavut: Lib vs. CPC


nbt said...

As Rick Anderson notes, the only party to gain in Atlantic Canada (percentage wise) was the Greens and the NDP. Yes, you have to factor in NL into the equation, but this could still be a slight indication that 130 will be the magic number after all if the Tories under perform in in Quebec and hold steady in Ontario.

Rob said...

The blue wave's getting a little bigger as Ontario comes in.

BTW, who ends up representing Nfld in cabinet? Do they have a Conservative senator?

nbpolitico said...

Peter MacKay had been the minister for PEI so now thay Gail Shea is taking that job over, MacKay could be minister for NL.