Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Live blog (sort of)

(all times Atlantic, will go live at 11 when west coast polls close)

9:17 - So much for my model in the Atlantic. As I had feared, Atlantic polls were not localized enough to be of much use. A *huge* CPC drop in Newfoundland and Labrador poisoned the sample. Tories could gain as many as four seats in NB, two in PEI and hold their own or gain one in NS.

9:52 - Huge upset in Miramichi where Charlie Hubbard is defeated handily. Saint John and Moncton are too close to call and my gut would have had them fall to the Tories before Miramichi. Go figure.

10:48 - Tory vote seems to be up in Ontario considerably over the polls, if this holds things could be a lot different than most folks predicted.

10:59 - Current vote totals have the CPC up 9% over the Libs in Ontario, leading in places like Ottawa Centre... if this holds it would be almost certainly a majority government. But it is pretty early.

11:16 - It continues to look good for the Conservatives - I think that CTV might want to retract calling Florida for Dion a Harper minority.

11:38 - Despite a steep Liberal drop in Ontario, Gerard Kennedy is pulling ahead in his race. He could be the only Liberal gain in that province.

11:59 - Kennedy declared the winner by CBC, ahead by nearly 2000 votes. If there is a Liberal leadership race which is largely a rematch of the last one, expect a major Kennedy speaking point to be that he ran against an incumbent and picked up the only Liberal gain in Ontario while Ignatieff, Rae and Hall Findlay all ran in ultra safe Liberal strongholds.

12:10 - Peter Kent pulls ahead in Thornhill? Would be very interesting if that holds.

12:15 - Who is this independent James Ford in Edmonton--Sherwood Park? He keeps edging in and out of the lead.


Rob said...

How 'bout Mr D'Amours holding Madawaska? Would've thought that one would have gone blue before the Chi.

garth.ca is trailing in early results. David Orchard went down. Also, according to the ctv elections map, anticosti island has been annexed by the Maritime provinces.

nbpolitico said...

Yes Madawaska is also a surprise.