Thursday, October 9, 2008

Seventh projection

For today's update. We are using the following polls:

Angus Reid - Oct 6-7 (0.93 weight)
EKOS - Oct 6-8 (1.00 weight)
Ipsos-Reid - Sep 30-Oct 2 (0.14 weight)
Nanos Research - Oct 6-8 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight)
Harris-Decima -Oct 5-8 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight)

National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 133 (+9, +3), Lib 83 (-20, -1), BQ 49 (-2, n/c), NDP 39 (+10, -3), Ind 3 (+2, n/c), Grn 1 (+1, +1)

Atlantic (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 22 (+2, n/c), NDP 5 (+2, -1), CPC 3 (-6, n/c), Ind 1 (+1, n/c), Grn 1 (+1, +1)

Quebec (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
BQ 49 (-2, n/c), Lib 13 (+2, n/c), CPC 11 (+1, n/c), Ind 2 (+1, n/c), NDP 0 (n/c, n/c)

Ontario (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 46 (+6, n/c), Lib 41 (-13, n/c), NDP 19 (+7, n/c)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 21 (+1, +2), NDP 4 (+1, -1), Lib 3 (-2, -1)

Alberta (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 28 (n/c, n/c)

British Columbia (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 24 (+7, +1), NDP 10 (n/c, -1), Lib 2 (-7, n/c)

North (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 2 (n/c, n/c), NDP 1 (n/c, n/c)

A few remarks...

This poll suggests things are beginning to stabilize, with no change in Quebec (for the second day), no change in Ontario and no change or more than 1 seat per party in any other region.

Elizabeth May pulls back into the lead in this update, despite our slightly-revised, slightly-less-favourable formula for her circumstances. The model shows May at 36.7% and the NDP at 35.9%. Due to the Conservative collapse in Atlantic Canada in recent polls, it shows MacKay at 26.7%.

Today for the first time, a crude graphic to show you were the projections have moved since we started a week ago:

I'll continue to update daily until October 14. I welcome your suggestions if you think any aspect of the formula needs to be adjusted.

NOTE: These projections do not reflect the wishes, nor predictions, of the author. They are based on simple math using the criteria outlined here and here.


nuna d. above said...

oops, posted this in the wrong place the first time. On the Canada Election project site, someone said ATV had a poll that had McKay winning and May third.

nbpolitico said...

That very well may be, unfortunately my model doesn't allow for individual riding polls and there are bound to be errors at the riding level as a result. The more credible number is the national projection, the more localized you get, the less accurate the projection becomes.

nuna d. above said...

I read the other day that Conservatives usualy score two points higher on election day than in the polls. Does anyone know if that is the case?

nbpolitico said...

Parties without a national organization (i.e. the conservative parties in the 1997, 2000 elections) tend to underperform because they don't have get-out-the-vote organizations.

Anonymous said...

Well, I'd wager the third seat in the Atlantic region would likely have to be Avalon or Central Nova.

Manny said...

Stop looking a polls, look out the window instead.

All financial experts agree with Harper -- Dion and Layton look like panicky fools. The National Post (no suprise) and the Globe & Mail (huge surprise) endorse Harper. And the Great Ignatieff himself wants the Dion's carbon tax to be shelved until the economy gets better (read, forever).

Harper is up, Dion is down. Oh, that's why.