I am big believer in the idea that history repeats itself and that if you can understand the core trends of the present, you can predict the future by looking at the core trends of the past.
Quite a while back, I did an analysis of NDP results since its predecessor the CCF was created in 1935.
Interesting facts: the NDP has never gained seats for more than two consecutive elections; the NDP has never gained seats when a conservative party won a majority.
The NDP won extra seats in 2004 and then some more in 2006. Therefore, historically they shouldn't win seats in this election. If the Conservatives were to win a majority, it would be that much less likely for them to win more seats.
Food for thought.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
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I have reincarnated this old blog and will be following both the national as well as the local developments in the New Brunswick region leading up to the 2011 federal election.
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2 comments:
I don't dispute your trend patterns, but I think the last time a federal Liberal leader ran on such a controversial plank/issue was when Laurier ran on the policy of unrestricted reciprocity in 1891. I think the NDP party was still a zygote. lol
The NDP frankly through no wrong doing on their part (for a change) are going to largely get forgotten as a non-entity. This is a Conservative-Liberal knock them down, drag them out, free for all. The NDP/Greens will be merely duking it out for the scraps.
As NBT points out given Dion's platform which many Canadian will have a hard time swallowing and the hard sell of him as PM in English and French Canada it's hard to imagine the Conservatives not getting a majority.
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