Game changer

The media consortium remains without my respect as they have altered the debate format to map on to their own measure of fairness only after the bullies stopped punching them in the gut.

In any event though, Elizabeth May's inclusion in the debates will be a game changer. One of two things are now guaranteed to happen in my opinion:

1. Elizabeth May will do well in the debates and the Green Party will win seats in this election; or
2. Elizabeth May will do poorly in the debates and the Green Party's vote will collapse, seeing them get less than 2% of the popular vote and therefore no more public funding.

To be honest, I always used to think that Elizabeth May was a huge mistake for the Greens because of her history with a somewhat non-credible organization (the Sierra Club) and that she would cause #2. Instead, she has shown fairly professional political instincts so I am more and more inclined to think that #1 will happen.

The Liberals are not running a strong campaign but are putting the environment front-and-centre; the NDP are not running a good campaign; many Canadians remain uncomfortable with Harper and may not want to vote for him but counter-intuitively still want him to be Prime Minister. The Green Party may have no better opportunity to win seats.

The Greens should have a respectable chance in Central Nova where May is pooring a lot of resources and in London North Centre and Guelph where the Greens aggressively campaigned in by-elections and should have a remaining infrastructure and voter IDs (particularly in Guelph where the by-election campaign has just morphed into a general election campaign). Finally the Greens may also have a shot in a few BC seats, such as Vancouver Centre where there is a three or four way race going on, including the former provincial Green leader who is well known having been in two provincial leaders debates.

I hope Ms. May is nervous because the future viability of her party rests in her hands. It is now or never for the Greens.