"Harper up, and Dion down in new poll"

That's right folks, according to a new (emphasis all mine) Corporate Research Associates Inc. poll, the Tories are making gains in the Bluenose province:

About 34 per cent of decided voters support the Conservatives, up from 27 per cent in May. Liberal support dropped to 29 per cent from 38 per cent. NDP support remained stable, the poll suggests, at 28 per cent, compared to 27 per cent in May. Green Party support remained unchanged at seven per cent.

But before all you Nova Scotia Tory wannabees get seemingly aroused over your party's new found fame, take a look at the date the poll was conducted. That's right my right-wing friends, it was conducted back in August just before the writ was dropped and well before things got a little greasy in a few Nova Scotia ridings for you guys. As I've always said, appointing candidates can be a very tricky business for any leader on the best of days. It's a little like nitroglycerine. Used in the proper fashion and when the timing is right, these freshly minted candidates can help propel your party in the right direction, filling in holes that previously existed. But if you're not careful, they can also blow up in your face. They can create a local backlash, making your party's bid all that much harder. And with the multiple explosions that happened [this week], it hard to fathom those numbers not changing one way or the other.

Moreover, not to pour more cold water on this poll, but the CRA were benchmarking the recent August numbers with the May 2008 numbers (which were quite low for the conservatives) due to a prior aggressive campaign by the Liberal caucus in the House of Commons regarding the alleged in-and-out transactions involving candidates who wrongly tried to collect rebates for ad expenses they did not incur as part of their local campaigns. Not to mention, it was pre-carbon tax. So honestly, it's not much of a bounce at all.

Anyway, the party or leader numbers are not what got my attention in this poll. Actually, it was the large number of undecided voters, forty-one per cent to be exact, who either don't have a clue, don't plan to vote or just plain refuse to tell pollsters what they are thinking. At this point, I think it's safe to guess that a majority of these individuals are probably not big Harper fans, and therefore, are mulling over their final decision. A decision which was just made that much more difficult (for more people I believe) with the riding gaffes this week. I'd say all those poor handpicked appointments pushed the undecideds well above 50 per cent. It'll be interesting to see the next CRA numbers that come out.

Accurate poll update

From Inkless:"The pollster with a mystic reputation for accuracy has his first tracking poll out, and the numbers are closer than in some other polls: 37% Conservatives, 32% Liberals, 13% NDP. Those NDP numbers are one-third lower than in other recent polls.

I happen to think the Nanos legend is a little exaggerated — there is no such thing as election-prediction accuracy this far out, because there are events — cursed events! Blessed events! — between here and the election day. But I know many of you swear by Nik as by the sun and stars, so I thought you’d want to see this."