Nova Scotia battlegrounds

Part of a series on Atlantic ridings

Central Nova (currently Conservative)
This is going to be a very interesting race. Most people would assume Peter Mackay would walk away with this and that Elizabeth May's run here is simply symbolic. However, May has had a surprising political canny since taking over as leader of the Greens and I think that there was a lot more than symbolism in play in her picking this seat. She has lived in Ottawa for many years so why not run in Ottawa Centre, one of the strongest Green seats in the country? She grew up in Cape Breton, so if she was going to run in Nova Scotia, why not run there?

I think she chose a riding where she had some tangible claim to roots but one where the Liberals knew they had no chance of winning. This way she would be more likely to score the deal to run unopposed by the Libeals. In 2006, the Liberals ran third. The race was between Mackay and NDPer Alexis MacDonald. The result? A much-closer-than-generally-realized 40.7% to 32.9%. May chose Central Nova only after the popular MacDonald announced she would not be a candidate. The base NDP vote in Central Nova has always been more in the range of 10-15%. It was 11% and 19% the years that favourite daughter Alexa McDonough led the NDP.

In 2006, Peter MacKay got less than 41% of the vote. In 2008, the NDP will have a far weaker candidate, the Liberals will have no candidate and Elizabeth May will likely be devoting a lot of time and money into this riding. May's candidacy in London North Centre managed to improve the Green score in a tightly contested riding by over 20% only 11 months after the preceeding election and only 5 weeks after she announced her candidacy. In Central Nova, if she can pick up a half of the Liberal and a third of the NDP vote (not unimaginable) and Mackay otherwise holds his vote from 2006, she would only need a bit over 17% from the remaining Liberal and NDP votes and from Mackay to pull the upset. Likely? No. More likely than most people think? Yes.

She seems to have penned an alliance with next-door MP Bill Casey as well which certainly won't hurt.

For now, this seat leans Conservative hold, but a close eye should be kept on it.

Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley (was Conservative, currently Independent)
Bill Casey, first elected as a Progressive Conservative in 1988, is running 20 years later as an independent. The Conservative candidate will not likely do very well considering that the whole riding association is backing Casey for re-election. Former federal PC leader (that would be Progressive Canadian) Tracy Parsons is running for the Liberals.

Depending on the strength of the official Conservative candidate, it could be possible for Parsons to slip up the middle but it is more likely that Casey will win his sixth term. Likely independent hold/gain.

Halifax (currently New Democratic) *incumbent retiring
As far as I can tell, no candidate has been named here yet for any of the major parties other than the NDP's Alexis MacDonald who is known for nearly defeating Peter Mackay in her 2004 and 2006 election attempts.

This riding could probably go Liberal or NDP (or even Conservative) given the right candidates but owing to recent history and a head start, I'll rank this a leans NDP hold.

West Nova (currently Liberal)
All things being equal, this riding should be retained by Liberal Robert Thibault. He is a well regarded MP and the Conservative brand has been damaged by the Atlantic Accord. However, the Conservative candidate who lost by just 500 votes last time, a well regarded former provincial minister, is running again and the NDP holding at around 20% is challenging for the Liberals. For now, I think Thibault has the edge but it will be a nail-biter (again). Leans Liberal hold.

NS: CPC -1, Lib n/c, NDP n/c, Ind +1