Monday, September 8, 2008

Atlantic Ridings to Watch

Thanks everyone for stopping by the temporary home of NB taxpayer and I. I wanted to take a brief look at the region before delving back into a more New Brunswick-centric take on the election, which I began on my main blog a little while back.

So, I will do a quick blow-by-blow of the 32 ridings in Atlantic Canada. The first 17 are safe and are unlikely to change hands, while the latter 15 could be interesting. I'll just list the boringsafe seats and do a brief overview of those that have the potential to move.

Safe ridings
  • Acadie—Bathurst, NB (New Democratic)
  • Beauséjour, NB (Liberal)
  • Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor, NL (Liberal)
  • Charlottetown, PE (Liberal)
  • Cape Breton—Canso, NS (Liberal)
  • Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS (Liberal)
  • Fundy Royal, NB (Conservative)
  • Halifax West, NS (Liberal)
  • Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte, NL (Liberal)
  • Kings—Hants, NS (Liberal)
  • Labrador (Liberal)
  • Malpeque, PE (currently Liberal)
  • New Brunswick Southwest (Conservative)
  • Sackville—Eastern Shore, NS (New Democratic)
  • South Shore—St. Margaret's, NS (Conservative)
  • Sydney—Victoria, NS (Liberal)
  • Tobique—Mactaquac, NB (Conservative)
So we're off to the races with Libs 11, CPC 4 and NDP 2.

This post was way too long, I am splitting it into four smaller posts on battlegrounds which you can find at:

My preliminary findings from the battlegrounds would be the following (vs. the last election) for the 32 Atlantic seats:

Lib 19 (-1)
CPC 8 (-1)
NDP 4 (+1)
Ind 1 (+1)

2 comments:

nbt said...

I noticed that Elizabeth May gave props to Alexis MacDonald on Mike Duffy live saying she was likely to win Halifax. Can you say, courting the left vote and her surrogates?

With all the cooperation between neighbouring ridings, it's almost like Brison, Casey and May are working in tandem against Mackay and Harper.

Neal Ford said...

I think the Tories have a good shot at picking off, in addition to what they currently hold, two ridings in NB (Madawaska-restigouche & Fredricton)and a longshot at St John.

In NS, I concur that Bill Casey will hold Cumberland-Colchester as an Indie, and Peter MacKay and Gerald keddy should hold their respective seats. West Nova is the only other one that's competitive for the Tories, and I think they'll take it. Halifax will be between the Libs and dippers.
The best the Tories will do in Newfoundland is to hold the three they currently have. I just don't see how Danny Millions can argue for the "Green Shaft" no matter how much he hates Stephen Harper.
PEI Might have an opening for the tories this time in Egnont, where a Liberal candidate quit over the Green Shaft and Malpeque could turn if there's enough of a blue tide.