I mentioned to a few people that last night's English debate reminded me a lot of the one in 2000. Anyway, without boring you with detailed minutia, here are my three quick reasons why: 1.) the second place party leader, Stock Day in 2000 and Dion in 2008, did not perform well enough to convince voters that they were ready for prime time b) the last place leader in the HoC upon dissolution, Joe Clark in 2000 and Layton in 2008, performed well enough to take votes away from their counterparts on their side of the political spectrum, thus ensuring vote splitting and c) The incumbents, Jean Chretien in 2000 and Harper in 2008, both knew they would be under attack all night, so they did their best to ward off all comers by playing defense, thus preventing the Opposition from scoring huge points. H/T WK
Oh, and one other thing, both debates had "a moment" as they say in spinner circles. In 2000, it was the moment when Stockwell Day held up a magic-markered placard saying "No 2-tier health care" and in 2008 the moment was this:
For a debate analogy much better then mine [see CTV Video Player "Political blogger Kinsella on the debate"]. I like the way Warren compares Harper to a hockey goalie. Brilliant.
Best post-debate line: Conservative pundit Gerry Nicholls: "Everybody at the table kept trying to convince Harper he was a conservative; he kept reassuring them that he wasn't.
Friday, October 3, 2008
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I have reincarnated this old blog and will be following both the national as well as the local developments in the New Brunswick region leading up to the 2011 federal election.
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12 comments:
I agree with the "moment". May was surprisingly good and seemed to know what she was talking about, not to mention the constant attacks to Harper. Layton was good too. He not only went on the attack, but also presented a NDP solution on every issue they covered. The last question on trusting politicians, I think all did a bad job. May be it's because they know they will break promises one way or the other.
More importamtly, I definitely don't think Dion's performance made any Conservative supporters change their vote. That said, I do think that wavering Liberals supporters will now be firmly back as strong Liberal supporters after Dion's surprisingly effective low key performance. As you and Warren mentioned, he didn'y necessarily knock Harper out, but he came across as thoughtful, honest and caring. I also thought he slowly gained steam towards the end of the debate when he moved into the theme "I want my Canada back". All in all, it was a respectable performance for Mr. Dion.
I think the NDP made a big mistake allowing Layton as PM to be their theme, rather than attacking the Liberals as partners with Harper and selling the NDP as the only truly progressive party. If they play that clip in ads from now until the election, they may hold their current poll numbers.
Things could be going better for Harper then most think. In my riding of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, many came away from the debate last night with a sense that Casey is the right guy, but he can't deliver the goods. Not sure it's a lock for Casey. Keep your eye on this one in the next few days.
Still no platform from Harper, although it was nice to see him have to admit he was wrong about something. Wonder if he'll do the same for this?
Harper accused of plagiarism again.
bill (5:55) - Casey knew what would happen when he voted against the budget, now he's on the outside looking in. Was your revenge sweet enough Bill? Was it worth the price you and your constituents are now paying? A vote for Casey is a wasted vote.
...Mr. Harper's economic plan is far less statist then the positions taken by opposition leaders.
...and clearly Dion has no intention of breaking up the Liberal ring of regional development and corporate welfare built up by his predecessors.
I think Casey will win that one hands down. However, if there is another minority parliament, his one vote may be more important then first perceived.
I don't know? I was at the debate in Truro and there were a few I figured would be in Casey's camp, and they were leaning towards Bernard. I guy who, btw, had a lot more vocal supporters then I ever thought he's get.
I think the national campaign may be drowning out the pro-Casey riding execs?
He could be paying a few campaign workers to manufacture an image? Maybe those ppl were it?
Jack seems so much more like a slimy American politician now, he's hard to stomach.
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