Painting a Political Picture

Final quick hitters & observations post-election

2008-10-15T10:29:00.049-03:00

Winner: Me. They weren't dead on, but they were pretty darn close. To be honest, if the Liberals had of taken care of business in their stronghold of Ontario, I think my predictions would have been even closer. In the end, that's the difference between being the guy who gets a couple of pats on the back for his effort and being famous amongst his peers. lol

Anyway, here are the comparisons:

My national predictions (Seats, % Votes)
CPC 136 (35.7), Lib 87 (27.8), BQ 49 (10.8), NDP 34 (19.9) , Ind 2 (0.9), Grn 0 (4.8)

Actual '08 election results (Seats, % Votes)
CPC 143 (37.63), Lib 76 (26.24), BQ 50 (9.97), NDP 37 (18.20), Ind 2 (0.65) Grn 0 (6.88)

Winner: Conservative leader Stephen Harper. Over these next few weeks and months, I'm certain Harper's leadership (and coming up short on a majority) will be cannon fodder for the press. However, unlike some pundits and Ottawa experts, I see another minority as a gift from heaven for the Tory leader. Why? Well, there are several reasons. Firstly, Harper has the full backing of his own caucus and party, unlike the Liberals who will certainly be re-entering unstable times with another leadership race. If Harper is smart (which I'm pretty sure he is), he will do what most Prime Minister's do in this situation. Pull up a chair and be a spectator to what will almost certainly be internal Liberal infighting. I mean, the negative "anonymous sources" in the Globe and Mail mid-election were pretty much evidence of that. Secondly, for someone who wants to change the country to a more conservative ethos via incrementalism, he has positioned himself perfectly. If you don't think so, just look at Pierre Trudeau's journey through governing. The man changed the face of this country while both losing to a weak leader and forming a minority during unsettling times. So there is hope yet for Harper and his mission. And finally, by not forming a large majority, he avoids doing what many of his conservative predecessors did. That being, coming in quickly and abruptly on a blue wave, scaring the political establishment, and then subsequently being shown the door as a result. So yes folks, there are advantages to being in a minority government after all.

Loser: Green party leader Elizabeth May. Not only did she do herself a disservice by running in Central Nova against political heavyweight Peter MacKay, she weakened her party's vision (and other candidates chances in the election) by getting too caught up in her local battle. Plus, it didn't help when she confused her own party supporters by calling for them to throw their support behind Dion in order to stop Harper. In the end, she ended up coming across as the leader of an interest group who could care less about the party she was running under and more about settling scores. It's hard to believe she wants to come back for more punishment in Central Nova, especially when she knows the Liberals will run a candidate.

Loser: NDP leader Jack Layton. Don't get me wrong, the dipper leader is well liked and universally trusted. Unfortunately, this just won't cut it for Jacko. Why? Well, at the same time last week, Mr. Layton was convincing Canadians that he was not only ready to replace the Liberals as Official Opposition, he was ready to be Prime Minister. Now that the big gains failed to materialize, I'm sure many Canadians will question his sincerity on such things, unless you're a die hard NDP supporter who drinks the orange Koolaid and doesn't consider missing official opposition status by more seats then you won altogether a failed mission.

Anyway, if the Liberals are smart, they will take full advantage of Layton's inability to sell himself as Official Opposition leader and, in turn, reclaim some of that territory on the left.

Loser: Liberal leader Stephane Dion. What more can be said then has already been said? Honestly, for a guy who wore an albatross around his neck for 3 months by trying to sell his Green Shift plan, he didn't do all that bad. And for that, people will probably question Harper's ability to win more then his opponents obvious political shortcomings.

Anyway, if there is one thing that Dion should be commended for, it's that he ran a respectful, policy oriented campaign under tough circumstances. I'm sure the next Liberal leader will find out very quickly that it's no picnic running against the Tory machine on a good day. A leader, if history repeats itself, will likely be an anglophone from outside Quebec. Which is probably not a good thing considering they just regained a pulse in Quebec while suffering their worst electoral defeat in Ontario in quite sometime.

Oh well, back to the drawing board for the Grits I suppose.

Winners: Gilles Duceppe and Danny Williams. The two regions (other then Alberta) where the Tories seat count declined. Let's just say, Duceppe's ability to beat back the conservatives from making addtional gains on his Bloc turf was the TSN turning point of this election. Had he not, Harper would certainly be governing from a clear majority this morning.

Losers: A disengaged and apathetic electorate. I don't often agree with Paul Zed on much of anything, but he put it perfectly last night about the disinterest in this election: "people are just electioned out." Well said, Paul.

For the record, NB turnout was above the national average of 2006 this time around. On the flip side, voter fatigue seems to be the worst in Newfoundland and Labrador. No surprise here since they had Danny-boy running around telling them who they could vote for.

Projection post mortem

2008-10-15T07:59:00.008-03:00

Over the past few weeks, I engaged in one of my favourite pastimes - predictions. To aid me, I developed a bit of an aid in the form a projection model. Here I try to evaluate how it did and what its strengths and weaknesses were.

First, its biggest flaw is that it is almost wholly dependant on outside factors. It is a poll-driven machine and, if the polls are not accurate, then it is not accurate.

Here is how the polling worked out vs. the actual result (both contrasted against the 2006 results):

	CPC		Lib		BQ		NDP		Grn
	Poll Avg	Actual	Poll Avg	Actual	Poll Avg	Actual	Poll Avg	Actual	Poll Avg	Actual
Atl	-9.2%	-4.9%	-2.0%	-4.5%	-	-	+3.8%	+3.4%	+7.2%	+3.7%
QC	-4.4%	-2.9%	-0.1%	+3.0%	-0.8%	-4.0%	+3.9%	+4.7%	+1.8%	-0.5%
ON	-0.7%	+4.1%	-5.1%	-6.1%	-	-	+1.3%	-1.2%	+4.9%	+3.3%
Pra	-0.6%	+5.4%	-6.4%	-7.2%	-	-	+3.4%	+0.1%	+5.0%	+2.7%
AB	-7.1%	-0.4%	+3.5%	-3.9%	-	-	+2.9%	+1.0%	+1.8%	+2.3%
BC	+1.5%	+7.1%	-5.6%	-8.3%	-	-	-2.7%	-2.5%	+7.5%	+4.1%
Natl*	-1.9%	+1.3%	-3.6%	-4.0%	-	-	+1.6%	+0.7%	+4.7%	+2.3%

*National numbers excluding the BQ were used to project the 3 northern seats

As you can see, the pollsters were a bit off (or at least my average of their polls was). No pollster got it exactly right, though Angus-Reid came very close in both national and regional numbers.

Using the actual regional results, my model gives the following:
CPC 145
Lib 77
BQ 48
NDP 35
Ind 3

Using only Angus-Reid's poll, my model gives the following:
CPC 141
Lib 76
BQ 49
NDP 39
Oth 3

So, I think I am relatively pleased with the model, even with the slightly off polling results, I seem to have done better than most prognosticators for a change.

Here is a list of the gross error for all the predictions listed on Calgary Grit's round-up and myself:

Ekos Predictions (18)

Calgary Grit's model (23.6)
Barry Kay Seat Projections (24)
Andrew Coyne (26)
nbpolitico (28)
UBC Stock Market (30)
David Akin (30)

Kady O'Malley (35)
Democratic Space (36)
Election Prediction Project (38)
Scott Reid (40)
Andrew Steele (44)

If I had had a crystal ball or a better gut, using the real results would have projected a gross error of 8, while using the best poll (Angus-Reid) would have given an error of 6 - obviously showing that the model needs a bit of work!!

But of course I am forgetting my blogging colleague NBT. Who needs fancy projection models when you've got him? His gross error: 22, good enough for second place! As the prominently displayed link on my other site says, a better prognosticator than I!

Projection history: Final :: Eighth :: Seventh :: Sixth :: Fifth :: Fourth :: Third :: Second :: First :: Methodology

Live blog (sort of)

2008-10-14T23:00:00.009-03:00

(all times Atlantic, will go live at 11 when west coast polls close)

9:17 - So much for my model in the Atlantic. As I had feared, Atlantic polls were not localized enough to be of much use. A *huge* CPC drop in Newfoundland and Labrador poisoned the sample. Tories could gain as many as four seats in NB, two in PEI and hold their own or gain one in NS.

9:52 - Huge upset in Miramichi where Charlie Hubbard is defeated handily. Saint John and Moncton are too close to call and my gut would have had them fall to the Tories before Miramichi. Go figure.

10:48 - Tory vote seems to be up in Ontario considerably over the polls, if this holds things could be a lot different than most folks predicted.

10:59 - Current vote totals have the CPC up 9% over the Libs in Ontario, leading in places like Ottawa Centre... if this holds it would be almost certainly a majority government. But it is pretty early.

11:16 - It continues to look good for the Conservatives - I think that CTV might want to retract calling ~~Florida for Dion~~ a Harper minority.

11:38 - Despite a steep Liberal drop in Ontario, Gerard Kennedy is pulling ahead in his race. He could be the only Liberal gain in that province.

11:59 - Kennedy declared the winner by CBC, ahead by nearly 2000 votes. If there is a Liberal leadership race which is largely a rematch of the last one, expect a major Kennedy speaking point to be that he ran against an incumbent and picked up the only Liberal gain in Ontario while Ignatieff, Rae and Hall Findlay all ran in ultra safe Liberal strongholds.

12:10 - Peter Kent pulls ahead in Thornhill? Would be very interesting if that holds.

12:15 - Who is this independent James Ford in Edmonton--Sherwood Park? He keeps edging in and out of the lead.

Ridings to watch

2008-10-14T21:04:00.000-03:00

Here are nbpolitico's ridings to watch for the 2008 federal election. Polls are closed in the Atlantic and I am watching the returns. I'll follow the Election Act and not let you in on the secrets, but in the mean time, here are the seats that my projections showed within 5 points or "the ridings to watch" (parties listed in the order the projection model shows them placing):

St. John's East: NDP vs. Lib
Central Nova: NDP vs. Grn
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour: Lib vs. NDP
Honoré-Mercier: CPC vs. BQ
LaSalle--Émard: BQ vs. Lib
Outremont: Lib vs. NDP
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques: Ind vs. BQ vs. Lib
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing: NDP vs. Lib
Beaches--East York: NDP vs. Lib
Brampton West: Lib vs. CPC
Brant: CPC vs. Lib
Etobicoke--Lakeshore: Lib vs. CPC
Guelph: CPC vs. Lib
Kenora: Lib vs. NDP vs. CPC
London West: CPC vs. Lib
Mississauga South: CPC vs. Lib
Mississauga--Erindale: Lib vs. CPC
Newmarket--Aurora: CPC vs. Lib
Oak Ridges--Markham: Lib vs. CPC
Oakville: CPC vs. Lib
Oshawa: CPC vs. NDP
Ottawa South: Lib vs. CPC
Sudbury: Lib vs. NDP
Thunder Bay--Rainy River: NDP vs. Lib
Welland: NDP vs. Lib vs. CPC
Churchill: NDP vs. Lib
Saint-Boniface: CPC vs. Lib
Winnipeg South Centre: Lib vs. CPC
Palliser: CPC vs. NDP
Regina--Qu'Appelle: CPC vs. NDP
Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar: NDP vs. CPC
Edmonton--Strathcona: NDP vs. CPC
Burnaby--Douglas: NDP vs. CPC
Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca: Lib vs. CPC vs. NDP
Newton--North Delta: Lib vs. CPC vs. NDP
North Vancouver: CPC vs. Lib
Richmond: CPC vs. Lib
Vancouver Island North: NDP vs. CPC
Vancouver Kingsway: Lib vs. NDP
Vancouver Quadra: Lib vs. CPC
Nunavut: Lib vs. CPC

Enjoy!

Final projection

2008-10-13T22:03:00.000-03:00

After a little break for Thanksgiving weekend, here is the final update based on 7 new polls.

Angus Reid - Oct 8-10 (0.71 weight)
EKOS - Oct 10-12 (1.00 weight)
Ipsos-Reid - Oct 7-9 (0.57 weight)
Nanos Research - Oct 10-12 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight)
Strategic Counsel - Oct 10-11 [ON, QC only] (0.93 weight)
Harris-Decima -Oct 9-12 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight)
Segma - Oct 5-9 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.43 weight)

National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 129 (+5, -4), Lib 85 (-18, +3), BQ 50 (-1, +1), NDP 41 (+12, n/c), Ind 3 (+2, n/c), Grn 0 (n/c, n/c)

Atlantic (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 22 (+2, n/c), NDP 6 (+3, n/c), CPC 3 (-6, n/c), Ind 1 (+1, n/c), Grn 0 (n/c, n/c)

Quebec (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
BQ 50 (-1, +1), Lib 12 (+1, n/c), CPC 11 (+1, n/c), Ind 2 (+1, n/c), NDP 0 (n/c, -1)

Ontario (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 47 (+7, +1), Lib 41 (-13, n/c), NDP 18 (+6, -1)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 21 (+1, n/c), NDP 5 (+2, n/c), Lib 2 (-3, n/c)

Alberta (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 27 (-1, -1), NDP 1 (+1, +1)

British Columbia (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 20 (+3, -4), NDP 10 (n/c, +1), Lib 6 (-3, +3)

North (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 2 (n/c, n/c), NDP 1 (n/c, n/c)

A few remarks...

The final projection echoes the buzz that the NDP will pick up a seat in Alberta and the conventional wisdom that Elizabeth May will lose in Central Nova - however it shows both of these things happening by less than a percentage point. In other words, it says these things with no certainty whatsoever.

We also show a Conservatve collapse in Atlantic Canada offset by gains in Ontario and British Columbia, allowing them to essentially break even, while the NDP grows at the expense of Liberal totals.

I've posted a chart of which seats are projected for each party and the whole projection system for your interest and in the interests of accountability.

No matter who for, don't forget to vote tomorrow. I hope you enjoyed these projection and the musings of NBT and I over the past few weeks. Thanks for stopping by.

Today's chart:

NOTE: These projections do not reflect the wishes, nor predictions, of the author. They are based on simple math using the criteria outlined here and here.

NBT's 2008 Election Projections

2008-10-13T10:56:00.058-03:00

National results (Seats, % Votes)
CPC 136 (35.7), Lib 87 (27.8), BQ 49 (10.8), NDP 34 (19.9) , Ind 2 (0.9), Grn 0 (4.8)

Atlantic Canada (Seats, % Votes)
Lib 22 (35.9) , CPC 6 (29.7), NDP 3 (18.3), Ind 1 (0.9), Grn 0 (5.6)

Quebec (Seats, % Votes)
BQ 49 (41.0), Lib 15 (27.5) , CPC 10 (21.1) , Ind 1 (1.2) , NDP 0 (13.6)

Ontario (Seats, % Votes)
CPC 49 (36.9) , Lib 40 (32.3), NDP 17 (19.5) Grn 0 (5.4)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (Seats, % Votes)
CPC 25 (42.3), NDP 2 (21.5), Lib 1 (22.3) Grn 0 (4.1)

Alberta (Seats, % Votes)
CPC 28 (54.4), Lib 0 (20.5), NDP 0 (18.7) Grn 0 (3.9)

British Columbia (Seats, % Votes)
CPC 18 (41.8), NDP 11 (17.2), Lib 7 (28.8) Grn (6.7)

North (Seats, % Votes)
Lib 2 (38.5), NDP 1 (30.9) CPC 0 (21.6)

A few quick speculations...

There was much chatter around Jack Layton and whether or not he and his NDP party would replace the Liberals as Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Several polls for much of the campaign showed that Layton was one of the most popular party leaders in Canada ahead of Dion, May and Duceppe. Nonetheless, he will not be successful in translating this into electoral success, much like Broadbent in '88, since I believe the Liberals will reap most of the benefits from an impending Tory majority. In other words, a fair size chunk of last minute, undecided voters will jump over to the Liberals in order to stop Harper.

You could say that New Democrat Thomas Mulclair's by-election win in Outremont was anything but routine, but one thing that may surprise the dippers once again on this one is how short lived his victory will end up. Liberals regain their stronghold tonight and put an end to the NDP's dreams of forming a modest caucus in La belle province.

Liberals make it a clean sweep of Atlantic Canadian islands (Newfoundland, Cape Breton Island and Prince Edward Island). First time this has happened since confederation.

Nova Scotia and New Brunswick keep the status quo, with the exception of electing Bill Casey as an independent and electing one more Tory to the Atlantic NB caucus. Oh yeah, and another thing, for those that thought Pictou-Antigonish-Guysborough (now Central Nova) would be close, you are wrong. Peter in a cakewalk (1000+ vote margin).

Aside from Central Nova, here are 15 ridings to keep your eye on tonight. Anyway, for all those that dropped by Paint the Political Picture, nbpolitico and I can't say how much we appreciate all your comments, opinions and discussion.

Oh, and one last thing, I second this statement by Tim Powers: "... if you do one thing today, make it out to vote. I am just walking over to do it myself now. There is much at stake in this election. There are clear choices. Get some skin in the game and vote.A big congratulations to everyone from every party who put their name on the ballot. It is a courageous and commendable thing to do. Most of us have no clue about the sacrifices you have made to try to serve Canada. Good on you all. Politics matters and you have made the effort to make a difference." That said, have a great election night folks!!

Morer

Not only are Gerry and I close in policy thought, it would seem that we have the same predictions and gut feelings as well. So if we're wrong, we'll still end up being right.

Don't expect voter turnout to break any records after tonight's count comes in. As I see it, it will most likely decline from the improved 2006 levels. Probably around sixty per cent or so...maybe even lower. I mean, honestly, when there's that many people out there who aren't motivated by any of the current political leaders, it's bound to happen.

Eighth projection

2008-10-10T17:02:00.000-03:00

For today's update. We are using the following polls:

Angus Reid - Oct 6-7 (0.79 weight)
EKOS - Oct 7-9 (1.00 weight)
Nanos Research - Oct 7-9 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight)
Harris-Decima -Oct 6-9 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight)

National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 133 (+9, n/c), Lib 82 (-21, -1), BQ 49 (-2, n/c), NDP 41 (+12, +2), Ind 3 (+2, n/c), Grn 0 (n/c, -1)

Atlantic (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 22 (+2, n/c), NDP 6 (+3, +1), CPC 3 (-6, n/c), Ind 1 (+1, n/c), Grn 0 (n/c, -1)

Quebec (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
BQ 49 (-2, n/c), Lib 12 (+1, -1), CPC 11 (+1, n/c), Ind 2 (+1, n/c), NDP 1 (+1, +1)

Ontario (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 46 (+6, n/c), Lib 41 (-13, n/c), NDP 19 (+7, n/c)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 21 (+1, +2), NDP 5 (+2, +1), Lib 2 (-3, -1)

Alberta (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 28 (n/c, n/c)

British Columbia (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 24 (+7, +1), NDP 9 (-1, -1), Lib 3 (-6, +1)

North (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 2 (n/c, n/c), NDP 1 (n/c, n/c)

A few remarks...

The race remains stable, the widely covered CTV Atlantic interview with Dion last night may cause some final day shifts however.

Elizabeth May has fallen back in today's update, Central Nova shows as: 37.5% NDP, 36.8% Grn.

Tom Mulcair has pulled ahead in Outrement, the model shows that result as: 33.4% NDP, 33.0% Lib.

Today's chart:

I'll continue to update daily until October 14. I welcome your suggestions if you think any aspect of the formula needs to be adjusted.

NOTE: These projections do not reflect the wishes, nor predictions, of the author. They are based on simple math using the criteria outlined here and here.

Seventh projection

2008-10-09T17:25:00.001-03:00

For today's update. We are using the following polls:

Angus Reid - Oct 6-7 (0.93 weight)
EKOS - Oct 6-8 (1.00 weight)
Ipsos-Reid - Sep 30-Oct 2 (0.14 weight)
Nanos Research - Oct 6-8 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight)
Harris-Decima -Oct 5-8 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight)

National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 133 (+9, +3), Lib 83 (-20, -1), BQ 49 (-2, n/c), NDP 39 (+10, -3), Ind 3 (+2, n/c), Grn 1 (+1, +1)

Atlantic (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 22 (+2, n/c), NDP 5 (+2, -1), CPC 3 (-6, n/c), Ind 1 (+1, n/c), Grn 1 (+1, +1)

Quebec (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
BQ 49 (-2, n/c), Lib 13 (+2, n/c), CPC 11 (+1, n/c), Ind 2 (+1, n/c), NDP 0 (n/c, n/c)

Ontario (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 46 (+6, n/c), Lib 41 (-13, n/c), NDP 19 (+7, n/c)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 21 (+1, +2), NDP 4 (+1, -1), Lib 3 (-2, -1)

Alberta (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 28 (n/c, n/c)

British Columbia (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 24 (+7, +1), NDP 10 (n/c, -1), Lib 2 (-7, n/c)

North (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 2 (n/c, n/c), NDP 1 (n/c, n/c)

A few remarks...

This poll suggests things are beginning to stabilize, with no change in Quebec (for the second day), no change in Ontario and no change or more than 1 seat per party in any other region.

Elizabeth May pulls back into the lead in this update, despite our slightly-revised, slightly-less-favourable formula for her circumstances. The model shows May at 36.7% and the NDP at 35.9%. Due to the Conservative collapse in Atlantic Canada in recent polls, it shows MacKay at 26.7%.

Today for the first time, a crude graphic to show you were the projections have moved since we started a week ago:

I'll continue to update daily until October 14. I welcome your suggestions if you think any aspect of the formula needs to be adjusted.

NOTE: These projections do not reflect the wishes, nor predictions, of the author. They are based on simple math using the criteria outlined here and here.

In Quotes: The conflicting arguments of Jim Flaherty and the Tories

2008-10-09T14:58:00.018-03:00

Jim Flaherty on Corporate Welfare: "I don't believe in corporate welfare or in propping up failing companies," he said, rejecting any sort of direct industrial aid or investment as a response to mill closures in New Brunswick.

[Source: The Telegraph Journal, December 13th, 2007]

Ah, but that was then, this is now: "Conservative Leader Stephen Harper pledged $400-million for the hard-hit aerospace and auto sectors today as he unveiled his relatively meagre campaign platform and tried to dispel the impression that he's done little to respond to fresh economic gloom and market turmoil."

[Source: The Toronto Globe & Mail, October 7, 2008]

Jim Flaherty on Bailing out Banks: "We are not looking at a rescue package for banks," he told reporters. "We are not looking at creating any additional risk for taxpayers."

[Source: The Toronto Globe & Mail, October 9, 2008]

Excuse me, if I don't hold my breath, Mr. Flaherty.

Update

Is it me, or is McKenna starting to sound a lot like another Paul Martiin Jr. Maybe he thinks he can sweep to power on the exact same policy agenda as Martin, the only difference being he will be popular with his party. Now, if only Dion will get out of the way. lol

Update II

Not to worry, it's not a bailout: "the plan was one of the many tools available to government help credit conditions, and shows the Canadian government is acting in advance instead of waiting for a crisis to hit the Canadian financial system."

Can't say I didn't warn ya.

Sixth projection

2008-10-08T17:14:00.003-03:00

There is a slight revision to the projection method starting today and going forward. In ridings were a party is not fielding a candidate; rather than ignore the polling fluctuations for the non-contesting party, they will be distributed in the same way that party's 2006 votes were distributed.

For instance, in Central Nova, the Liberals are not running and have endorsed the Greens. To create a baseline for the projection, I distributed 60% of the Liberal vote to the Greens and the remaining 40% proportionally among the Conservatives and New Democrats. Today's polling average shows the Liberals down 3.5% in Atlantic Canada from their 2006 result, so I shave 60% of 3.5% off of the Greens and the balance proportionally off of the other two parties. I will use this method for the other 3 ridings where a party has opted to endorse another candidate today and in future projections.

With that business out of the way, on to today's update. We are using the following polls:

Angus Reid - Oct 6-7 (1.00 weight)
EKOS - Oct 5-7 (0.93 weight)
Ipsos-Reid - Sep 30-Oct 2 (0.36 weight)
Nanos Research - Oct 5-7 [ON, QC, Atl only] (0.93 weight)
Harris-Decima -Oct 4-7 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.86 weight)

National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 130 (+6, -6), Lib 84 (-19, +3), BQ 49 (-2, n/c), NDP 42 (+13, +4), Ind 3 (+2, n/c), Grn 0 (n/c, -1)

Atlantic (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 22 (+2, +4), NDP 6 (+3, +2), CPC 3 (-6, -5), Ind 1 (+1, n/c), Grn 0 (n/c, -1)

Quebec (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
BQ 49 (-2, n/c), Lib 13 (+2, n/c), CPC 11 (+1, n/c), Ind 2 (+1, n/c), NDP 0 (n/c, n/c)

Ontario (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 46 (+6, +2), Lib 41 (-13, -2), NDP 19 (+7, n/c)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 19 (-1, -3), NDP 5 (+2, +2), Lib 4 (-1, +1)

Alberta (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 28 (n/c, n/c)

British Columbia (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 23 (+6, n/c), NDP 11 (+1, n/c), Lib 2 (-7, n/c)

North (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 2 (n/c, n/c), NDP 1 (n/c, n/c)

A few remarks...

Polls show a huge Liberal resurgence in Atlantic Canada, particularly in the Nanos poll which shows them at 50%! Not sure if this is real or a rogue poll combined with a series of polls with high margins of error. We'll see in the coming days.

Polling has otherwise stablized, with the Conservatives moving up from their low yesterday in Ontario and no change at all in Quebec, Alberta, British Columbia or the North.

Thanks to our revised formula, and strong numbers for the NDP in the Atlantic, the Greens are now shown to be losing Central Nova by 2.7% to the NDP with Peter MacKay finishing a distant third.

I'll continue to update daily until October 14. I welcome your suggestions if you think any aspect of the formula needs to be adjusted.

NOTE: These projections do not reflect the wishes, nor predictions, of the author. They are based on simple math using the criteria outlined here and here.

Day 32: Quick hitters are back baby!

2008-10-08T15:47:00.041-03:00

Loser: Moi. For stating the "reverse coattail" strategy had no chance for success. Not only did it work in stabilizing Dion's base support, it has now put him in a position where he can bring some of the marginal ridings along for the ride on his own coattails. Yes, I realize there will be a lot of folks out there who will say it had nothing to do with the Liberal strategy and all to do with Harper's own self-inflicted wounds; even so, you still can't discount the fact that the Liberals strategy worked in keeping them around to fight another day.

Policy loser: Conservative platform. Not only is it late coming, there are way to many pictures (some forty in all of Harper photo ops). Anyway, let Macleans' editor Andrew Coyne explain (since I am lock, stock and barrel in agreement): "Much of it is old news, having been unveiled already in the course of the campaign (or indeed announced in previous budgets). Some of it is wildly wrong — adding yet another regional development agency, pouring yet more subsidies into the auto and aerospace sinkholes..." Read more.

Winner: Conservative Peter Mackay for having his mom come out in the paper as a "Raging Granny" and anti-war advocate. There's no question this will help position him as a Tory who was brought up by someone with considerable empathy and understanding. And for someone in a defense portfolio who needs to court Liberals in that riding to win, it's not a bad thing and doesn't hurt. Plus, when your leader is struggling with his own "empathy deficit" at a national level (L. Ian coined the phrase), you need to pull out all the stops. Keep your eyes on nbpolitico's daily polling in Central Nova, this one is definitely going to be close.

Funny, I see Harper is now playing the mom card.

Winner: Obviously Liberal leader Stephane Dion for getting up off the mat and somehow making this thing interesting. Remember, many big name conservatives in 2003 didn't step up to plate and run because they thought Harper would get waxed by juggernaut Paul Martin. Well, could the same thing happen in 2008? Let me tell you, if it does, you can all but kiss a possible Frank McKenna prime ministerial run goodbye as he doesn't have the years to wait it out since he is already in his late 60s. Anyway, what else can be said other than minority governments definitely bite for aspiring leaders.

Winners: Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe and NL Premier Danny Williams. I don't agree with their tactics (that is for sure), but as in love and war, in politics all is fair game and it would seem their very aggressive and negative ABC campaigns are getting through to the electorate in both of their perspective provinces. And with Harper needing to breakthrough big time in Quebec, he can't be pleased with this. Let's hope, for his sake, it doesn't come down to those lost NL seats and the one squandered in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley.

Losers: CRA pollsters for issuing an obvious rogue poll (and then trying to hide that fact). With federal Liberal support increasing dramatically in every poll over the last week (see Harris/Decima, Nanos, Strategic Counsel's perception numbers), they come out bragging in the Telegraph Journal (who co-sponsored the poll btw) about how their data projects conservatives to pick up seats in New Brunswick. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see this scenario pan out just as much as the next Tory, but it's a little hackish to believe that it is so, esdpecially when there is so much data to suggest otherwise. I mean honestly, anyone that would put a great deal of weight on just one week of polling with a week left of critical campaigning, is a little naive to say the least. Time to go to a rolling nightly or a weekly one, CRA. Either that, or stay out of the game when elections come around.

Fifth projection (or yesterday's numbers, today)

2008-10-08T08:06:00.003-03:00

Due to technical difficulties, I didn't get yesterday's update posted. Here it is this morning, with another to follow this evening with today's polls. For this projection, I used the following polls:

Angus Reid - Oct 2-3 (0.64 weight)
EKOS - Oct 4-6 (1.00 weight)
Ipsos-Reid - Sep 30-Oct 2 (0.43 weight)
Nanos Research - Oct 4-6 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight)
Strategic Counsel - Sep 28-29 [ON, QC only] (0.07 weight)
Harris-Decima -Oct 3-6 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight)

National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 136 (+12, -3), Lib 81 (-22, +6), BQ 49 (-2, n/c), NDP 38 (+9, -3), Grn 1 (+1, n/c), Ind 3 (+2, n/c)

Atlantic (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 18 (-2, +1), CPC 8 (-1, n/c), NDP 4 (+1, -1), Grn 1 (+1, n/c), Ind 1 (+1, n/c)

Quebec (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
BQ 49 (-2, n/c), Lib 13 (+2, n/c), CPC 11 (+1, n/c), Ind 2 (+1, n/c), NDP 0 (n/c, n/c)

Ontario (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 44 (+4, -4), Lib 43 (-11, +4), NDP 19 (+7, n/c)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 22 (+2, -1), Lib 3 (-2, +1), NDP 3 (n/c, n/c)

Alberta (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 28 (n/c, n/c)

British Columbia (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 23 (+6, +2), NDP 11 (+1, -2), Lib 2 (-7, n/c)

North (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 2 (n/c, n/c), NDP 1 (n/c, n/c)

A few remarks...

The Conservatives have slipped again, losing 4 seats to Liberals in Ontario bringing that province essentially to a draw. Their losses were however somewhat offset by gains in BC.

The race in Outremont, Quebec remains close, though, for the first time, it hasn't changed hands in a projection. This edition shows the Liberals increasing their lead from 0.3% to 0.37%.

All three new polls in this projection show the Conservatives either tied (1) or behind (2) in Ontario, they retain a 1 seat lead in this projection but that is largely due to their strength in older polling. If the trend continues, the Conservatives are almost certain to lose their Ontario lead in the projection tonight. However, they formed a government with a 14 seat deficit in Ontario last time, unless the bottom really falls out, it seems likely they'll still have some (marginal) gains in Ontario, though the trend would show them still finishing second, just a stronger second than last time.

I'll continue to update daily until October 14. I welcome your suggestions if you think any aspect of the formula needs to be adjusted.

A question for readers (repeated)

There is a slight glitch right now for the projection model in those four ridings where a party is not contesting and endorsing another candidate. The base number for those ridings had the non-contesting party at 0, as they should be, but when the polling data is entered, that number moves, sometimes into negative territory.

*new* No one has answered this, so I wanted to show how it would affect the results, the three options are as follows, with the results as of this projection in brackets:

Disregard the number for the non-contesting party (Central Nova: Grn 36%, NDP 36%, CPC 34%, Lib -5%) [what I have been doing];
Distribute the gain or loss in the same proportion as I did with the 2006 votes (NDP 34%, CPC 33%, Grn 33%); or
Distribute the gain or loss to the candidate the non-contesting party has endorsed? (Central Nova: NDP 35%, CPC 34%, Grn 31%)

NOTE: These projections do not reflect the wishes, nor predictions, of the author. They are based on simple math using the criteria outlined here and here.

In tough times, great leaders, including Harper, need to be challenged

2008-10-07T01:02:00.003-03:00

Full disclosure: I skipped the Canadian English debate on Thursday night to catch the US Vice-Presidential debate (although, I'm sure I wasn't the only one). Anyway, the debate went along quite smoothly IMO for what was billed as a possible shootout by the mainstream media. As well, I thought both veep candidates showed well enough to claim victory at the end of the day. But aside from that, what struck me as most interesting was Joe Biden's response to the moderator's question regarding what the role of the vice president would be? He said:

With regard to the role of vice president, I had a long talk, as I'm sure the governor did with her principal, in my case with Barack. Let me tell you what Barack asked me to do. I have a history of getting things done in the United States Senate. John McCain would acknowledge that. My record shows that on controversial issues. I would be the point person for the legislative initiatives in the United States Congress for our administration. I would also, when asked if I wanted a portfolio, my response was, no. But Barack Obama indicated to me he wanted me with him to help him govern. So every major decision he'll be making, I'll be sitting in the room to give my best advice. He's president, not me, I'll give my best advice.
And one of the things he said early on when he was choosing, he said he picked someone who had an independent judgment and wouldn't be afraid to tell him if he disagreed. That is sort of my reputation, as you know. I look forward to working with Barack and playing a very constructive role in his presidency, bringing about the kind of change this country needs.

It's interesting that Senator Biden said that "he wouldn't be afraid to tell him [Barack] if he disagreed." Why? Because that's exactly the kind of veep Obama said he was looking for before the caucus season even started back in December. His exact words were:

I want somebody who can be an outstanding president, should something happen to me. I want somebody who’s got integrity and I want somebody who has independence. I want somebody who will tell me when they disagree with me. [...] I don’t like having a lot of ‘yes’ people around me who are just telling me what I want to hear all the time.

I agree wholeheartedly as all great leaders need someone who has the independence and strength to push them out of their comfort zone from time-to-time. That said, with a few pollsters indicating that the Tory numbers are on the decline both nationally and in Quebec/Ontario, has the Prime Minister done himself a disservice by surrounding himself with "yes people", not to mention the fact that he has limited a talented caucus to mere talking points at a time when the country requires him to be challenged? I don't know about you, but I see this as a major problem for him moving forward. Or maybe I'm mistaken, and he does have someone close to him with the gonads to set him straight on both policy and strategy. Anybody willing to give it a shot on just who that particular person may be?

Quick hint: it's not Spector, Brodie, Kinsella or Flannagan. That is for sure.

Fourth projection

2008-10-06T17:11:00.001-03:00

For today's update, we are using the following polls:

Angus Reid - Oct 2-3 (0.79 weight)
EKOS - Oct 3-5 (1.00 weight)
Ipsos-Reid - Sep 30-Oct 2 (0.57 weight)
Nanos Research - Oct 3-5 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight)
Strategic Counsel - Sep 28-29 [ON, QC only] (0.21 weight)
Harris-Decima -Oct 2-5 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight)

National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 139 (+15, -10), Lib 75 (-28, +5), BQ 49 (-2, n/c), NDP 41 (+12, +5), Grn 1 (+1, n/c), Ind 3 (+2, n/c)

Atlantic (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 17 (-3, n/c), CPC 8 (-1, -1), NDP 5 (+2, +1), Grn 1 (+1, n/c), Ind 1 (+1, n/c)

Quebec (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
BQ 49 (-2, n/c), Lib 13 (+2, +1), CPC 11 (+1, n/c), Ind 2 (+1, n/c), NDP 0 (n/c, -1)

Ontario (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 48 (+8, -9), Lib 39 (-15, +7), NDP 19 (+7, +2)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 23 (+3, n/c), NDP 3 (n/c, n/c), Lib 2 (-3, n/c)

Alberta (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 28 (n/c, n/c)

British Columbia (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 21 (+4, +1), NDP 13 (+3, +3), Lib 2 (-7, -4)

North (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 1 (n/c, +1), NDP 1 (n/c, n/c), CPC 0 (n/c, -1)

A few remarks...

The Conservatives have, after enjoying a few strong days of polling, slipped back essentially to where they stood in my first projection 4 days ago (that projection showed 142-72-49-42-3-0), far from majority territory.

The race in Outremont, Quebec is one of the closest and volatile in this election according to the model. It has changed hands in every single projection so far. Presently, it shows as going Liberal by 0.3%.

In Ontario, both Nanos and Harris-Decima (two of our three new polls), show the Conservatives slipping into second place which has hurt their totals there. The NDP have also surged to 19 seats, thanks to a projected-near-sweep of Northern Ontario.

Despite a resurgance yesterday, the Liberals have slipped back to just two seats in British Columbia.

I'll continue to update daily until October 14. I welcome your suggestions if you think any aspect of the formula needs to be adjusted.

A question for readers (repeated)

There is a slight glitch right now for the projection model in those four ridings where a party is not contesting and endorsing another candidate. The base number for those ridings had the non-contesting party at 0, as they should be, but when the polling data is entered, that number moves, sometimes into negative territory.

Should I:

Disregard the number for the non-contesting party (what I have been doing);
Distribute the gain or loss in the same proportion as I did with the 2006 votes; or
Distribute the gain or loss to the candidate the non-contesting party has endorsed?

NOTE: These projections do not reflect the wishes, nor predictions, of the author. They are based on simple math using the criteria outlined here and here.

Third projection

2008-10-05T11:16:00.002-03:00

For today's update, we are using the following polls:

Angus Reid - Oct 2-3 (1.00 weight)
EKOS - Sep 30-Oct 2 (0.79 weight)
Ipsos-Reid - Sep 30-Oct 2 (0.79 weight)
Nanos Research - Oct 1-3 [ON, QC, Atl only] (0.93 weight)
Strategic Counsel - Sep 28-29 [ON, QC only] (0.43 weight)
Harris-Decima -Sep 30-Oct 3 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.86 weight)

National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 149 (+25, -3), Lib 70 (-33, +3), BQ 49 (-2, n/c), NDP 36 (+7, n/c), Grn 1 (+1, n/c), Ind 3 (+2, n/c)

Atlantic (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 17 (-3, n/c), CPC 9 (n/c, n/c), NDP 4 (+1, n/c), Grn 1 (+1, n/c), Ind 1 (+1, n/c)

Quebec (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
BQ 49 (-2, n/c), Lib 12 (+1, -1), CPC 11 (+1, n/c), Ind 2 (+1, n/c), NDP 1 (+1, +1)

Ontario (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 57 (+17, -1), Lib 32 (-22, +1), NDP 17 (+5, n/c)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 23 (+3, +1), NDP 3 (n/c, n/c), Lib 2 (-3, -1)

Alberta (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 28 (n/c, n/c)

British Columbia (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 20 (+3, -3), NDP 10 (n/c, -1), Lib 6 (-3, +4)

North (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 1 (+1, n/c), Lib 1 (-1, n/c), NDP 1 (n/c, n/c)

A few remarks...

In the Atlantic, after a few days of roller-coaster, the numbers seem to have stablized. Elizabeth May stays ahead in Central Nova, though by a more narrow margin; May is now 2.08% ahead of MacKay.

In Quebec, this projection shows Mulcair pulling back into the lead for the NDP Outremont by only 0.99%.

The Liberals have surged back to nearly their 2006 results in BC after flirting with a wipeout in the first few projections.

I'll continue to update daily until October 14. I welcome your suggestions if you think any aspect of the formula needs to be adjusted.

A question for readers

There is a slight glitch right now for the projection model in those four ridings where a party is not contesting and endorsing another candidate. The base number for those ridings had the non-contesting party at 0, as they should be, but when the polling data is entered, that number moves, sometimes into negative territory.

Should I:

Disregard the number for the non-contesting party (what I have been doing);
Distribute the gain or loss in the same proportion as I did with the 2006 votes; or
Distribute the gain or loss to the candidate the non-contesting party has endorsed?

NOTE: These projections do not reflect the wishes, nor predictions, of the author. They are based on simple math using the criteria outlined here and here.

Second projection

2008-10-04T17:59:00.000-03:00

For today's update, we are using the following polls:

Angus Reid - Sep 24-25 (0.07 weight)
EKOS - Sep 30-Oct 2 (1.00 weight)
Ipsos-Reid - Sep 30-Oct 2 (1.00 weight)
Nanos Research - Sep 30-Oct 2 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight)
Strategic Counsel - Sep 28-29 [ON, QC only] (0.64 weight)
Harris-Decima -Sep 29-Oct 2 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight)

National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 152 (+28, +10), Lib 67 (-36, -5), BQ 49 (-2, n/c), NDP 36 (+7, -6), Grn 1 (+1, +1), Ind 3 (+2, n/c)

Atlantic (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
Lib 17 (-3, -5), CPC 9 (n/c, +6), NDP 4 (+1, -2), Grn 1 (+1, +1), Ind 1 (+1, n/c)

Quebec (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
BQ 49 (-2, n/c), Lib 13 (+2, +1), CPC 11 (+1, n/c), Ind 2 (+1, n/c), NDP 0 (n/c, -1)

Ontario (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 58 (+18, n/c), Lib 31 (-23, n/c), NDP 17 (+5, n/c)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 22 (+2, n/c), Lib 3 (-2, n/c), NDP 3 (n/c, n/c)

Alberta (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 28 (n/c, +1), NDP 0 (n/c, -1)

British Columbia (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 23 (+6, +3), NDP 11 (+1, -2), Lib 2 (-7, -1)

North (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection)
CPC 1 (+1, n/c), Lib 1 (-1, n/c), NDP 1 (n/c, n/c)

A few remarks...

In Alberta, the Tories re-solidify their stranglehold, robbing the NDP of the seat that was projected there last time.

In the Atlantic, the Conservatives make up the ground they had lost in the last projection but Elizabeth May pulls ahead in Central Nova winning by just under 3 points over MacKay with the NDP placing a close third.

In Quebec, this projection shows the NDP losing their toe-hold, with Mulcair losing Outremont by only 0.72%.

I'll continue to update daily until October 14. I welcome your suggestions if you think any aspect of the formula needs to be adjusted.

NOTE: These projections do not reflect the wishes, nor predictions, of the author. They are based on simple math using the criteria outlined here and here.

Image politics strikes again. And it ain't pretty folks.

2008-10-03T19:40:00.055-03:00

Many history buffs may remember the '74 photo of Bob Stanfield fumbling the football on an airport tarmac during a campaign stopover which, to the Tory leader's dismay, served to depict him as clumsy and inept. Well, the wrath of embarrassing image politics strikes again my friends as this photo of Liberal leader Stéphane Dion trying (I think?) to shoot the puck or ball into the net is disastrous to say the least. Is it as bad as the Stanfield photo? Probably not, but in the case of Stanfield, we must all remember that he caught all the passes thrown to him on that particular day before dropping the big one on camera (leading him to be punked by the media). Judging from the photo below, not sure one can say the same about Steph's athletic prowess away from the camera lens? H/T Dan Cook.

Although, in his defense, he probably sealed up the political geek vote with his suspect shooting technique. A technique I haven't witnessed since my mom joined me and my friends out in the driveway for a few quick wristers eons ago. Can you say train wreck?

Update: Toronto Star Quiz "Which party best represents your views in this election?"

Apparently, besides the Tories, the Dippers are the best party to represent my political views in this election, go figure. Take the "party quiz" and let me know how it goes?

Update II: It doesn't get any better in video, folks. H/T Le Politico.

Big debate bump coming for NDP?

2008-10-03T18:11:00.001-03:00

The Ipsos-Reid poll out today says the following:

Overall, the effect of this debate on voters’ intentions is mild. Nearly two in ten (15%) English-speaking Canadians who watched the debate say that they have changed their mind about who to vote for on October 14th as a result of viewing the debate.

Among those who changed their vote, 37% say they would now vote NDP, 26% say they would now Liberal, 25% say they would now vote Green, and 9% say they would now vote Conservative.

That means the NDP could get a bounce of up to 5.6%, the Liberals up to 3.9%, the Greens up to 3.8% and the Conservatives up to 1.4%. I say "up to" because each parties gains would be coming at the expense of others.

Ipsos polls tend to be more favourable to the Conservatives than most, so this looks to be quite good for the opposition parties. One presumes though that the NDP and Green votes are coming mostly at the expense of the Liberals so it remains to be seen how much of a net bounce they would get out of this.

As a result, depending on how this breaks out, it is conceivable, and even likely, we will see the NDP and Greens gain votes at the expense of the Liberals and, to a lesser extent, the Conservatives. Worth paying close attention to the first polls that have begin dates of Oct 4, likely out by Monday.

First projection

2008-10-03T17:41:00.002-03:00

Ok friends, Romans and countrymen, the long awaited projection is here.

I explained the methodology for obtaining base numbers yesterday.

Before getting into the projection, I'll explain the methodology for including polls:

Only one poll per polling company will be used at any time;
A poll must break down into at least one of following regions to be used: Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic (NB, NS, PE, NL), SK/MB, AB, BC - these are the regions I project off of;
Polls will only be used for those regions from the bullet above into which they break, national numbers are used to project the three northern seats;
For our purposes, the date of the poll is the average of all days in a sample (i.e. a poll conducted from Sep 29-Oct 1 has a date of Sep 30, a poll conducted from Sep 28-Oct 1 has a date of Sep 29.5)
The newest poll(s) is/are given full weight, all other polls are rated relatively with only polls taken within 6.5 days of the newest poll being considered (i.e. if the newest poll has an average date of Sep 30, it is given full weight; a poll with a date of Sep 23 would be given no weight and a poll with a date of Sep 23.5 would be given a weight of 0.5/7)

So for today's projection, we are using the following polls:

Angus Reid - Sep 24-25 (0.21 weight)
EKOS - Sep 29-Oct 1 (1.00 weight)
Ipsos-Reid - Sep 23-25 (0.14 weight)
Nanos Research - Sep 29-Oct 1 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight)
Strategic Counsel - Sep 28-29 [ON, QC only] (0.79 weight)
Harris-Decima -Sep 28-Oct1 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight)

National results (change vs. 2006)
CPC 142 (+18), Lib 72 (-31), BQ 49 (-2), NDP 42 (+13), Ind 3 (+2)

Atlantic (change vs. 2006)
Lib 22 (+2), NDP 6 (+3), CPC 3 (-6), Ind 1 (+1)

Quebec (change vs. 2006)
BQ 49 (-2), Lib 12 (-1), CPC 11 (+1), Ind 2 (+1), NDP 1 (+1)

Ontario (change vs. 2006)
CPC 58 (+18), Lib 31 (-23), NDP 17 (+5)

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (change vs. 2006)
CPC 22 (+2), Lib 3 (-2), NDP 3 (n/c)

Alberta (change vs. 2006)
CPC 27 (-1), NDP 1 (+1)

British Columbia (change vs. 2006)
CPC 20 (+3), NDP 13 (+3), Lib 3 (-6)

North (change vs. 2006)
CPC 1 (+1), Lib 1 (-1), NDP 1 (n/c)

A few remarks...

The Alberta results stand out, however, the polling average shows the Conservatives down 10% in Alberta with the Greens and NDP each up about 5. If that were to actually happen on election day, it would be conceivable for at least one urban seat to flip. In this projection, it shows the NDP picking up Edmonton--Strathcona by a margin of 38 to 32.

There are two indpendents showing up in Quebec, one is obviously Andre Arthur. The other is incumbent MP Louise Thibault, formerly of the Bloc, in Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques. This riding shows the best (or worst) vote split ever... Ind 23%, CPC 22%, BQ 18%, NDP 18%, Lib 16%, Grn 4%.

A very interesting race in Central Nova where the projection shows the NDP winning and Peter Mackay placing third. Is this realistic? I'm not sure. This may be a good argument for tweaking the formula. What do you folks think? Current results project NDP 36%, Grn 35%, CPC 29%.

I'll continue to update daily until October 14. I welcome your suggestions if you think any aspect of the formula needs to be adjusted.

NOTE: These projections do not reflect the wishes, nor predictions, of the author. They are based on simple math using the criteria outlined here and here.

Layton to Dion: You're not ready for prime time

2008-10-03T13:38:00.028-03:00

I mentioned to a few people that last night's English debate reminded me a lot of the one in 2000. Anyway, without boring you with detailed minutia, here are my three quick reasons why: 1.) the second place party leader, Stock Day in 2000 and Dion in 2008, did not perform well enough to convince voters that they were ready for prime time b) the last place leader in the HoC upon dissolution, Joe Clark in 2000 and Layton in 2008, performed well enough to take votes away from their counterparts on their side of the political spectrum, thus ensuring vote splitting and c) The incumbents, Jean Chretien in 2000 and Harper in 2008, both knew they would be under attack all night, so they did their best to ward off all comers by playing defense, thus preventing the Opposition from scoring huge points. H/T WK

Oh, and one other thing, both debates had "a moment" as they say in spinner circles. In 2000, it was the moment when Stockwell Day held up a magic-markered placard saying "No 2-tier health care" and in 2008 the moment was this:

For a debate analogy much better then mine [see CTV Video Player "Political blogger Kinsella on the debate"]. I like the way Warren compares Harper to a hockey goalie. Brilliant.

Best post-debate line: Conservative pundit Gerry Nicholls: "Everybody at the table kept trying to convince Harper he was a conservative; he kept reassuring them that he wasn't.

Debate live blog

2008-10-03T00:03:00.000-03:00

10:02 - Stephen Harper and Elizabeth May look quite unfortunate in HD. Layton has many short white hairs on the top of his head that you don't see in standard definition. Dion and Duceppe look about the same.

10:04 - Dion answered the first question relatively clearly, points to him. Harper takes a rough shot at Dion saying he "panicked" by launching a policy on a debate, doesn't answer the question for himself.

10:07 - Dion is given a chance to respond to Harper, starts of strong but then repeats verbatim, with the same tone, his lines from before. Clearly they had been memorized, not sure if the average viewer would pick up on that and view it negatively or not.

10:09 - "Either you don't care, or you're incompotent," Layton to Harper. Harper says it is true that $50b went to big business in tax cuts, but it was a $200b tax cut package with three-quarters going to "families, small businesses", etc.

10:12 - Dion rails agains Flaherty's criticism of Ontario, gets excited and the quality of his English suffers.

10:13 - May gets in a Central Nova riding shout out (Trenton).

10:19 - Cool camera angle. Harper centered with back to camera looking on to Layton and Duceppe both offset. Good for Harper I think, he looks commanding with two apprentices looking on.

10:21 - Dion mocks Layton for saying he opposes a carbon tax when he looks to Sweden as a model which has a carbon tax. Layton rebuts saying they are meeting Kyoto because of a cap-and-trade system like the one the NDP proposes. Dion dismisses him condecendingly.

10:23 - Harper/Duceppe big time showdown on the ultra sexy topic of reimbursable tax credits.

10:28 - Quick switch over to U.S. veep debate...

10:30 - Palin seems to be doing fairly strong. Back to Canada.... whoa, climate change quesion. "We know that it's real," says Palin. "Somthing to be said about man's activities, but also the cyclical changes of our planet..." Now back to Canada for real.

10:31 - ... and right into the deficit question.

10:32 - Shockingly, all leaders say they wouldn't not run a deficit. I can't believe it. This will be the headline tomorrow, who could have predicted it!?!? Layton makes a cute jab about how Tommy Douglas never ran a deficit and, as for Bob Rae, "I guess he's with [the Liberals] now."

10:42 - Layton gets same angle as 10:19 vs. Harper and May, not quite as cool looking though as it is not perfectly centered.

10:43 - Harper explains his climate change plan that sounds pretty strong, although I assume it is not. May rebuts him relatively effectively.

10:45 - Then Duceppe does and Layton. Dion takes a pass on rebuttng Harper to further explain Green Shift, does so quite effectively.

10:47 - Healthcare, availability of doctors, as the feds have no real ability to change this, back over to U.S. Palin mocking Obama on foreign policy, sounds silly but does so effectively.

10:53 - Back to Canada. Things are pretty rowdy. Looks like Layton must have accused Harper of being against medicare.

10:55 - May aledges that NAFTA could allow Americans to bring private medicine to Canada, saying Harper's job as head of CTF was to destroy medicare. For the former point, wouldn't that have happened by now? The latter, somewhat fair but a bit of a stretch.

11:03 - Paikin: "Are Conservatives barbarians?" Oooo-kaaaayy.....

11:04 - "It's not the choice of politicians who will be helped by the government," says Dion. Ummm... so we have politicians why?

11:08 - Paikin: "I'm trying to make sure that Biden and Palin don't take our audience here..." that reminds me... *push recall* "... most important election ... since 1932," says Biden. Good to know.

11:12 - Palin still seems to be holding her own. Switching back to Canada.

11:17 - Layton takes an effective shot on Harper, pointing out his crime legislation would have passed a year ago if he hadn't prorogued parliament.

11:23 - Dion accuses Layton of destroying Kelowna Accord by "joining a coalition" with Harper to bring down the government. Layton very strongly puts Dion down by indicating how many times Dion has voted with the Harper government and says "if you can't even be leader of the opposition, what are you doing running for prime minister?" Ouch.

11:26 - Duceppe takes a shot at Layton, compliments the Liberals (backhandedly). Has he taken a shot at Dion? It is clear that Duceppe sees Harper as his principal opponent, but it is almost as though Layton is his secondary one?

11:28 - Checking in with the Americans, I believe they wrap up at 11:30.

11:29 - Palin's closing includes a shot at the mainstream media, says she likes taking the tough questions without the media filter.

11:32 - Biden's closing talks about his roots "like most of you".

11:33 - Back to Canada. CIDA is politicized? Interesting, I am not sure if what May says is true or not. Anyone in a position to speak without spin?

11:37 - Duceppe says "I know I won't be prime minister, and I know three of you won't be prime minister." I.e. a Harper win is a foregone conclusion.

11:38 - May says the first thing she would do would be change the electoral system to proportional representation. Okay, so worst case scenario, there would be an election in what? Six months? So the first thing you do is change the electoral system? Couldn't that wait until, I don't know, you'd accomplished something worth going to the polls on?

11:42 - Dion says he is courageous.

11:43 - May says a lack of income splitting robs $5 billion from married couples, says for someone who is a defender of marriage it doesn't make sense.

11:49 - May makes a good call out for populism.

11:53 - Layton does a good job listing just about every Liberal election promise that was broken right back to the Clear Grits platform in 1856.

11:58 - Paikin makes another Biden-Palin joke as we close, he is lucky it is over.

WRAP UP:

Not a bad debate, everyone had their good moments. In terms of the expectations game, I think Dion won. In terms of deliverable results, I think May won as she was articulate and didn't come off as a "crazy enviro-nut" and will be able to actually get the votes (high single digits) that polls suggest she will. In terms of an actual winner from a debate-in-a-vacuum view? Probably a draw.

Note: Due to technical difficulties, though this was written live, it was posted at the conclusion of the debate.

Projections coming tomorrow

2008-10-02T21:54:00.004-03:00

Revision 1 - Oct. 8, 2008

I have completed the projection model and tested it - it's working!

I hope you'll enjoy the results (which I'll update through the election).

Here is the formula, this can be tweaked if it proves way out in left field but so far it seems to work in the testing.

First, I take the 2006 results and apply the following filters as necessary:

For first time incumbents:
- if they held the seat for their own party: no adjustment
- if they picked up an open seat from another party: +2% from the former party
- if they defeated an incumbent and are having a rematch: +2.5% from the former incumbent
- if they defeated an incumbent and are running against a new opponent: +5% from the former party
For non-incumbent races:
- if there was one principal opponent: -2.5% from incumbent's party to opponent
- if there were two principal opponents: -4% from incumbent's party with +2% to each opponent
The Danny Williams factor:
- In Newfoundland and Labrador: -10% from CPC to principal opponent
- In Nova Scotia, in CPC held ridings: -5% from CPC to principal opponent
Floor crossers:
- If running for another party: 15% of their former party's share moves with them to their new party
- If running as an independent: 50% of their former party's share goes with them
By-elections*:
- if all of the principal candidates run again: weighted at 75%
- if the incumbent runs again: weighted at 50%
- if the incumbent doesn't reoffer: weighted at 25%
- *I weighted vote totals, which tend to be lower in by-elections, not the percentages of votes
Other factors:
- Party doesn't offer, endorses other candidate**: 60% to endorsee, balance distributed proportionately to other candidates; REV1 same formula applied to poll adjustments
- Leader factor: 10% adjustment in favour of leader / against party whose leader ran in riding in 2006
- **Liberals endorse May; Conservatives endorse Arthur; Greens endorse Dion, Wilfert

Without adding in polls (i.e. we re-ran the 2006 with different candidates), these adjustments would have made the 2006 results come out as follows:

Conservative: 123 (-1)
Liberal: 100 (-3)
Bloc Québécois: 51 (n/c)
New Democratic: 32 (+3)
Green: 0 (n/c)
Independents: 2 (+1)

The first projection will come tomorrow.

Le débat

2008-10-02T07:49:00.000-03:00

Before delving into my thoughts, I have to admit that I fell asleep for part of the debate so I may have missed something of substance (staying up 'til midnight is hard for old foggies).

One of the biggest take-aways I had from this was one of being impressed with Jack Layton. His French, which in previous debates seemed "okay", I would now rate as "pretty good". He also looked somewhat "prime-ministerial" which is huge for Layton who had previously always came off as more of a game show host.

The next biggest thing I noticed was that Stéphane Dion missed the boat on countering the "not a leader" meme. Dion knew his files and was articulate but he was the only one that was repeatedly singled out by the moderator for talking out of turn and his submission to this made him look weak. There was also a moment (only partially in the shot) where he made his infamous shrug. I imagine the Tories are currently offering a series of first-borns in exchange for the footage from the camera that might have captured this in full.

Elizabeth May's French was not strong but her performance was steady. An important thing for her was when she made reference to that fact that the Green Party wants to lower income taxes. For me and probably most of the readers of this blog, that isn't a surprise. For many Canadians it would be. The Greens are viewed as left-wing, and left-wing is supposed to mean "tax raiser". I suspect a lot of people who are just tuning in have a new found curiosity about the Greens and that is why allowing the Greens into the debate could be a game changer.

Harper and Duceppe didn't really do anything that I found noteworthy, which would mean they performed as I expected.

What did you think?

Bloc Quebecois: A terrible return on investment

2008-10-01T12:20:00.028-03:00

With the French debate on my mind this morning, I found these scribblings regarding the Bloc by Tim Power, a proud Newfoundlander, quite interesting to say the least:

It was only a few months ago that Gilles Duceppe had announced he was leaving the BQ to try to lead the PQ. That journey lasted no more than a day. Also, the BQ - like the PQ - have for all intents and purposes put sovereignty on the back burner. With 18 years in Ottawa, and many healthy federal pensions built up for their MPs, the Bloc have only managed to pass four pieces of legislation. It is not for me or Rob to tell Quebeckers what to do, but if I were a Quebecker I'd have to give some long hard thought about what my voting investment in the Bloc is doing for my province.

I come from a place where nationalism is alive and well. We have a premier who has marshaled its forces to great effect. But even with Newfoundland and Labrador's growing wealth and sense of self-confidence, will you find anyone serious who seriously advocates a break from the federation or would be prepared to support a federal party that apparently lives for the federation's death? While the Premier may have taken the controversial view that Newfoundlanders and Labradorians should not vote for one federal party, he has made it abundantly clear he wants the Canada-Newfoundland relationship to work.

At heart I am both a Canadian and a Newfoundland nationalist - they are congruent. We have had similar struggles to the people of Quebec and with Quebec. I respect and admire Quebeckers, but I am still stuck to understand the longevity of the Bloc.

Wow, four pieces of legislation in eighteen years (and fully sponsored by taxpayers to boot). The only other politician I know that could possibly meet (or surpass) that rate of unproductive absenteeism is MRD Liberal candidate Brian Murphy. A guy who missed over 43 votes in the House of Commons in just a few short years. To be honest, a record like that is something that voters in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe should give some serious thought to when considering what their own voting investment in Murphy is doing for their riding.

A few things on Ken Dryden's speech in Fredericton

Though I wasn't as lucky as Rob to catch Mr. Dryden's "Mr. Nice Guy" speech live in the Restigouche Room at the Beaverbrook, I did catch it on CBC Newsworld this morning. And even though it was a little wordy, I found it to be very eloquently delivered. However, I can't say the same for the content contained within the speech as there was a little too much fluff in there for my liking. In it, Dryden attempted to paint Harper as a "not so nice" leader and listed a host of wasteful, statist Liberal programs that were cut as the reasoning behind his theory. He even went on to conclude (warning not verbatim) that from my experience "'not so nice guy's win" but "nice guy's win as well." I can only take that to mean that Dion is the nice guy deserved of victory that he is referring in that line.

Anyway, from someone who knows a little bit about playing sports for losing teams with a "nice guy" at the helm and winning teams with a "not so nice guy" as coach, I have to admit, if anything, Dryden's "Nice Guy" speech put into perspective why Dion's undisciplined, nice guy approach to politics is losing and Harper's tough, disciplined approach is winning.

Let's just say, nobody ever accused Trudeau, Mulroney or Chretien of being nice guys. Actually the former was decribes by his peers as "always combative, sometimes absurdly so" and the latter, Chretien, can be remembered for reducing the tough and rigid Carolyn Bennett to tears when she dared to cross him in front of caucus members at a cabinet meeting. Did Chretien hate her? Absolutely not. But he realized, as did other successful Prime Ministers, that to manage the egos within your own party, you had to be tough. Let's face it, anybody that I talk to who knows anything about federal politics, knows this isn't a business for "nice fellows". I think even Warren Kinsella would conquer with that, since he was the one that said Bob Rae would have never lived to see his 61st birthday if he had of tried to pull a stunt like this on his former boss. As the saying goes, "nice guys finish last."

Hail Mary?

2008-10-01T00:20:00.002-03:00

As an avid Joe Biden supporter, it is a bit awkward for me to wade in on a plagiarism issue but, here goes...

One of two things happened today:
1.) the Liberals fluked out and made the connection between the Howard speech and the Harper speech; or
2.) the Liberals released something that they had been sitting on for some time and had been waiting for a strategic moment to release.

I would be the first person to tell you that this is a non-issue, a non-story and really warrants no more than a casual side-bar reference in the newspaper.

Few politicians write their own speeches in whole, some but not many work on original drafts written by staff, most simply rehearse and read speeches written entirely by others. Any politician who would fault Stephen Harper for reading from a prepared text ought to reinforce the windows in their glass house first.

Leaving that aside, the media loves this sort of non-story (issues are hard too cover and too boring to sell papers) so suddenly, it is a story.

I think that, going back to my earlier two options, this is #2. The timing would seem otherwise way too coincidental. If the Liberals know what they are doing (this remains to be seen) then they have played this out really well.

It looks this way to me:
- they have found a story that puts Stephen Harper's previous support of the Iraq War in the news;
- they have released it the day before the first leaders' debate, knowing that certainly Gilles Duceppe and likely Elizabeth May and Jack Layton will not be able to resist pouncing on it;
- they had it released not by the leader, but by a high-profile surrogate-candidate.

If they are smart and this is actually part of a plan, Dion will stay way above the fold on this. In the debate, three leaders will look petty droning on about childish plagiarism allegations, the prime minister will be forced to defend his previous support of the Iraq invasion and Dion will be able to remain above the fray. For the first time in this campaign, he might even look like a leader.

This could have been a brilliant Hail Mary pass. I will watch the execution with considerable curiosity.

Day 24: The end of two full days of pre-debate carpet bombing

2008-09-30T16:02:00.030-03:00

Losers: This just in: a couple of Toronto area Liberal MPs have joined the Council of Canadians in warning our nation of the dangers of a re-mandated Harper government.

I'm kidding, of course. But after the recent display, yesterday and today, from Iggy and Rae, I wouldn't blame anyone for wondering what in the world is the Liberal party coming to. What with Rae arguing about a war we never participated in, and a plagiarized speech, as a key foreign policy plank (or at least that's what we were led to believe he was delivering) and Iggy, sounding like the president of the Toronto Stock Exchange, boring us into submission over the fact he's always right whenever he's not wrong, is frankly enough to even make Buzz Hardgrove twinge. And where's Stephane Dion when all this policy is being made on the fly? I know, I know!! Somewhere locked up in a basement in Gatineau anxiously awaiting another chance to sell the Green Shift. Yes, my friends, this is definitely not your father's Liberal party of Canada.

Loser: Canadian English debate watchers. I'm pretty sure yours truly isn't the only one torn between watching the English debate on Thursday and this doozy.

Loser: A lazy, understaffed (and underpaid) Opposition speech ~~writers~~ writer who copy and pasted. Glad to see the culprit did the right thing and owned up to his obvious mistake.

Policy flop: Atlantic Liberals for feeding us more of those old, statist regional development policies. Two that really made me quiver: "...more weeks of employment insurance for the seasonally unemployed" and "renewed funding to the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency."

Winner: Tina Fey. I think it's safe to say that because of her bang-on performance on Saturday Night Live this past weekend, we will likely be witness to one of the largest non-political viewing audiences ever for a Vice-Presidential debate. Strike that, I'll go out on a limb here and say the largest.

Local losers: People looking for an honest debate in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe. You would think it should be possible to have a picnic of honest discussion around the issues before a single ant arrives, or cloud to dim the day. Unfortunately, for voters in MRD, those ants arrived earlier than anticipated (and they're looking to ruin it for everyone else with lies and ad hominems). Word of advice, don't be fooled by the title of the Youtube video, it should read "divide and conquer [politics] along ethnic and linguistic lines" [H/T spinks]. Go watch:

That pesky Beausejour ant!! lol Anyway, is it me, or are the New Brunswick Liberal candidates, particularly Brian Murphy, getting worried about their election chances on the 14th of October? I mean honestly, what other explanation is there for such a barrage of unfounded brutal attacks right after the unfavourable poll numbers were released nationally last week and over the weekend? Oh well, the next time they get worried, Brian and Dominic can always call Mr. Zed to get reassurance that the national scene doesn't really matter in our neck of the woods, especially when they're the ones not doing well on it. lol

A few quick observations...

2008-09-29T23:16:00.003-03:00

That's what I said. (Sorry to gloat, but I am so often wrong)

That's what they said in 1988... how'd it work out? (I don't mean to suggest the Liberals are heading for a landslide in 2012, but let's not bury Mark Twain too early)

Ouch. (PS - I give up on predicting when my predictions will be ready)

NBers Paint the Political Picture Caption Contest Semaine Trois&trade

2008-09-29T15:18:00.009-03:00

I just couldn't resist the urge to use these classic photos of Dion for this weeks NBPPP Caption Contest. He's so good, he gets two pics. Anywho, you know the drill, and be nice.

* Week 1 winner: Le Politico
* Week 2 winner: henry j

Day 23: Party, policy and modus operandi

2008-09-29T11:41:00.047-03:00

Losers: Liberal strategists for employing a "reverse coattail" strategy late in the campaign. Just what do I mean by this? Well, normally political parties allocate scarce national campaign resources into ridings (and target their efforts) to where they lost or won by close margins the last time around, while at the same time, putting less of an effort into ridings where the margin of victory was big. A reverse coattail campaign would do the reverse, in that, they would place an even greater effort in ridings that won big -- not to raise the leader's already low poll numbers but in hopes the strong ridings pull the neighboring battleground ridings along for the ride. The bottom line, this type of ~~panic~~ strategy is usually a concession, by the party, that their leader has no chance of beating his/her opponent in the general campaign so they may as well salvage whatever they can at a micro level.

That said, you can understand my disagreements with this guy on the value of such a strategy, and in this case, speech. It's a losing strategy and you know it, Warren.

Reverse coattails update: Trust me folks, I do not make this stuff up. Greg Weston on the musings of another anonymous Liberal insider: "Another muses that perhaps Dion should be dispatched to campaign in Newfoundland for the rest of the election, leaving Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff to lead the fight for seat-rich Ontario."

Loser: Liberal MP Bob Rae for suggesting that Canadians, specifically Quebecers, will miraculously come around to their leader's policies after hearing him debate. He, of all people, should know better then to think that Procrustean politics works in Canada. In other words, parties that attempt to shape the country to their message rather than shaping their message to the country always lose. I guess left-wing ideologues, like Rae, believe that what is good for Liberals is good for the rest of the country. Too bad Canadians don't agree.

Policy Loser: The NDP's platform. If these statist policies are the ideas of Her Majesty's next Loyal Opposition, then we are in big trouble folks. So big that this may end up being the first Parliament we've known to be without a legitimate conscience. However, on the bright side for Tories, if anything, what the NDP does represent in today's politics is the guarantor of consecutive conservative majorities (and even a possible forced merger on the left). Thanks Jack.

Off the subject of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition, I see one former Mulroney PMO advisor is claiming bias in the mainstream media. But wait folks, it's not your typical right-wing railing against the bias Liberal media as you would expect from a Tory? He's claiming that there is an anti-NDP agenda amongst the media! That's right folks, A Tory claiming right-wing media bias against a left-wing socialist party. And you thought you had seen it all.

Losers: Liberal candidates who speculate, mid-campaign, about who should be their next leader going forward; not to mention, those that have the knives out already for Dion. Isn't this the kind of internal feuding that got you guys here in the first place? Très uncool Libs.

Losing argument: New Brunswick Liberal Paul Zed: "...the national polls are not a reflection of the way voters decide in Atlantic Canada. In this region, there are 32 mini-elections with voters very focused on who their candidate is and what they're going to do for the riding."

Ummm, sure Paul, all us good Atlantic Canadians will do our darnedest to put up "a firewall" to what is happening in the rest of the country and ignore the disaster nationally that is known as your Liberal party of Canada. Although, that will be tough to do since other Liberal star candidates in Ontario are saying that people will warm up to the national campaign after they see Dion debate on Wednesday and Thursday. To your credit Mr. ~~source~~ Zed, you were correct in saying that Harper is "smart enough to realize he can pick up seats here." I'm sure people who put weight in recent national polls won't argue with that fact.

Headline of the day: Canadian Liberals, once dominant, now in big trouble. H/T Dan Cook.

Best line: Out of the mouth of a senior NDP strategist: "We want to be known by that one word -- prudent," [...] The narrative of the platform," he said, "is Layton will run a prudent, fiscally sound government." Ouch! How does it feel to have the dippers steal the fiscal pragmatism right away from your party, Liberals?

Funny: I don't know what he ate for breakfast, but Stormin Norman is on fire today: "Now that Jack Layton has called on Stephen Harper to convene a meeting of party leaders to discuss the economic situation, one awaits a press release from Liberal headquarters announcing that Mr. Dion is suspending his campaign and re-considering whether he will participate in the leaders' debates."

Day 21 & 22: There's justice after all folks!

2008-09-27T13:19:00.030-03:00

Winners: National Post columnist Janathan Kay and NB blogger Micheal Spinks for bringing the issue of Heather Mallick's column to light. Let's just say, their efforts prompted thousands of Canadians taxpayers to issue complaints to the CBC regarding Mallick's "hateful" and "shameful" attacks on Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin. I know both gentlemen above to be strong advocates of free speech, however, in the case of Mallick's column, I suspect they were more appalled by the fact that such a barrage of vitriol took place on a “government-owned” website, and felt that her views had no place on an outlet funded by the public. I agree, and I'm glad to see CBC ombudsman Vince Carlin agrees as well. Although, I see Kay is still damanding the column be pulled from their CBC.ca website.

Winner: Dion strategists for finally realizing that their boss is an anglophone nightmare when he's in front of a teleprompter. Will this change be enough? Well, it better be for the Grits sake, b/c he [Dion] has put himself and his party in a huge hole after just two weeks. So much so, it really is difficult to imagine him digging his way out of it.

Local loser: The sleuth section of the Times & Transcript for trying their darnedest to cast a well run, positive campaign in a bad light. As someone who has run a few campaigns in his day, I will tell you, when all is said and done, win or lose the Daniel Allain campaign will be one that many will look back on as a model for the future. Not only have they used technology (Twitter, Youtube and Facebook) to their advantage, they have organized a strong mix of both youthful and experienced campaign workers who are hungry for change. Change, in a province that desperately needs to forget the past and focus on the future.

Loser: Former Paul Martin strategist Scott Reid for offering up advice to a well run Tory campaign. Honestly folks, that's like me, as a male, offering up advice to a pregnant lady on the dos and don'ts of child birth. Although, in his defense, I'm sure he's a pro on what doesn't actually work in a general election campaign. Much like his colleague David Herle.

Losing argument: Stéphane Dion for taking the advice of former Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chretien (who criticized the Tories as poor fiscal managers). Since the release of his party's platform this past week, Mr. Dion has been stumping in many towns and cities across the country on the argument that the Harper Conservatives shouldn't be trusted as fiscal managers because they have squandered the surplus. Now that the numbers show otherwise, I wonder where Mr. Dion will go from here? Back to the drawing board I suppose.

Best line: Says the anarchist at a Dion media scrum: "This meeting is being hijacked by these...media people!!" That's hilarious. I love it. [H/T Le Politico]

Day 22: Sunday Update & Quick Hitters

Loser: Jack Layton for getting way too far ahead of himself. There's no question yours truly has been very impressed with the dippers campaign thus far (even giving them a few hat tips in the first half of the campaign). However, yesterday was definitely the exception to the rule as Jack declared he and his party "the saviour of the Canadian family." Clearly, if these guys want to replace the Liberals as Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition, they've got to stick to the game plan as acting like a bunch of swelled headed left-wingers will get them right back where they started. Although, in Jackos defense, his rally was held at the Commodore club in downtown Vancouver, so maybe a few drinks were had after discussing the polls and before hitting the stage. Ooops, wrong guy in the link, but you get the drift.

Winner: Stephen Harper for attending his high school reunion. As someone who has never been to a single one of my high school reunions, I can only imagine the awkwardness he had to go through. lol But give Stephen credit, he not only had to drag the press gallery around all night, he had to own up to losing in the first round of the game show Reach for the Top. A true humbling experience for the PM.

Which leads me to this...

Best line: Harper: "I guess you are wondering what happened to me after high school. Look, things have turned out pretty well. I just thought I'd have a permanent job by now."

Day 20: A few quick afternoon observations

2008-09-26T12:01:00.036-03:00

Losers: Voters looking for a clear choice on the left. Last night I was at a political event and overheard a guy (who I suspect was a Liberal) say that "it doesn't matter who gets elected. We'll still end up with the same government." It sounds to me like voters are torn on the left (and have given up hope of forming government). To be honest, I think their choice will boil down to who they believe to be the least negative alternative: who's worst, who's second worst, who's left?

Winner: Electoral [gender] equity. It would seem all five major parties have made strides since the last election in getting more female candidates involved in the process as the number of women running has reached a record high of 438. Although, I'm not sure what the end result will be (how many will end up getting elected to the commons?) as it would seem a majority of females are parking their influential votes with the non-traditional parties.

Losers: Anonymous Liberal sources for airing their dirty laundry to the press. I see it all came to a head yesterday for the Grits as a named source is now telling the unnamed sources to "shut up!" You go Iggy!

Winner: The people in the riding of Kildonan--St. Paul for no longer having an anti-Zionist candidate as a possible choice on the 14th. Things have a way of working themselves out. Now, if only Layton will do the same with problematic candidate, Samira Laouni, in the Montreal riding of Bourassa?

Policy winner: Stephen Harper's message regarding the economy. Not only were the Tories successful in casting Dion as a risk in unstable times, they are now sending out a clever message in an attempt to convince Canadians that Harper's leadership, coupled with a strong electoral mandate, is the only plan for the country's economy. And they're doing it without using the word "majority" folks! Full marks to whoever came up with that.

Losers: Grits and dippers who were hoping yesterday's Nanos poll was an anomaly.

Local Winners: New Brunswick Tory campaigns. Specifically ones looking to break through like in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, Fredericton, Saint John, Madawaska-Restigouche and the Miramichi. They all have to be very pleased with the manner in which the numbers moved nationally yesterday in their favour, especially if the 14th turns into a referendum on the carbon tax and Dion's leadership. On the flip side, that poll must have sent a few shockwaves through Liberal campaign headquarters.

Best line: Stephen Harper: "I should have told the media that when I called this general election, I did it to give Garth Turner that byelection he promised."

Hey, I don't blame them....

2008-09-25T21:52:00.006-03:00

...I'd drink too after reading this poll. Bottoms up boys!!

Day 19: The passing Liberal parade

2008-09-25T14:18:00.013-03:00

Losers: Liberal bandwagoners [pseudo infighters] who shoot errant rounds into the campaign of their leader. Anyway, despite the high-toned, haughty advice of some, the road to political recovery is not through a rough "near-death experience" or "a serious electoral drubbing." To rediscover their identity as a national party, the Liberals need to decide who their constituents are, for whom they speak, and what they represent. Hey, I should know, I first joined the Tory party in Ottawa smack dab in the middle of a civil war. Not even I would wish that nonsense on the best of folks.

Loser: Leaders of fringe political parties who suggest strategic voting as manner in which to defeat (or at least slow down) a party surging towards government. It's a losing strategy. And May should know this all too well since she was one of the architects of the Think Twice Coalition, a 2006 campaign led by a group of left-wing representatives concerned with the possibility of a Harper gov't. Do I even have to tell you how that worked out.

Policy loser: Retired local Grits who reminisce about old, non-implemented policies. Nothing drives me up the wall more then a whiny (feeling sorry for himself) politician who blames the other guys for his party's political shortcomings. Well, almost nothing. Let's just say, leaders who resurrect old, dusty policies to boost their sputtering campaign come in a close second.

Winner: Conservative leader Stephen Harper for reassuring nervous Canadians about the prospects of the economy in the wake of a possible recession south of the border. In a media world fixated by the new accents of continentalism and internationalism, and region states dominated by volatile world markets, there is an urgent need for a distinctly Canadian voice and defined Canadian interest. Harper seems to be emerging as that voice.

Losers: Apathetic intellectuals who only seem to enter the Canadian public domain (and discussion) for selfish, self-centered reasons. Although, just the same, it's good to see that Ms. Atwood is, at least, a bit interested in the process. Maybe we'll see some inspiration prose of the non-fictional kind from her in the future? Something along the lines of being proud of your country perhaps?

Day 18: More quick hitters, and still lots of losers

2008-09-24T12:14:00.021-03:00

Losers: Current politicos that used to blog. Most of them aren't all that old and the technology they use hasn't been in the political arena all that long. So in their defense, I guess you could say, they don't quite understand, yet, how damaging some of this blogging stuff can be to their future careers as politicians. It's funny, b/c a lot of bloggers (when they get involved heavily in a campaign or even run) think that by shutting down their blog, or setting it to "invited readers only mode”, they can erase anything they ever said - good or bad. Not the case, younger staffers at media and political organizations are blog friendly too, and they can dig up this stuff, via google cache, and pass it along to their superiors in minutes. I think it's safe to say that TJ "THE BLOGGER GENERAL" Burke is proof of that.

Policy Loser: The conservative party's decision to cut funding to the arts. I'll have more on this later, but for now, all I can say is if Gordon Pinset drags himself out of bed to comment on this, you'd better start getting worried.

Winner: Tory credibility when it comes to keeping campaign commitments. A Nanos Research-Sun Media poll released earlier this morning showed that 30.4 per cent of Canadians surveyed think the conservatives will keep their promises - more than double the 14.5 per cent who believe the Libs will deliver and 14.1 per cent who put their trust in the New Democrats. With just twenty days left in this campaign for the opposition, all I can say to them is "Houston, we definitely have a problem!"

Loser: I'm a little late on this, but Jack Layton for his bonehead musings about being open to a post-election political coalition with the Liberals. I'm sure he thought it would nullify the argument that a vote for the NDP is a vote for the conservatives, but in reality, all it truly accomplished was to motivate the Tory base to get out and vote in droves on the 14th of October. Nice work Layte!

Local losers: Nova Scotia Tories for the alleged accounting irregularities by former Halifax Conservative candidate Rosamond Luke, which resulted in her losing her job and the organization where she was executive director shutting down. Even if the irregularities are proven not to be linked to her, the specter of all this smack dab in the middle of a general election is not good. I even see Peter Mackay was being dragged into this. Not good.

Video ad loser: I don't find myself too often being in sync with Norman Spector and his opinions, but in the case of the anonymous producers of the YouTube video below (who make fun of conservatives for their cuts to culture) , I have to agree, it borders on bigotry. Anyway, here's the video, you be the judge (are they deserved of loser status?):

Day 17: It's now or never, but never say never

2008-09-23T10:18:00.033-03:00

Loser: Stéphane Dion and the Liberals for trying their darnedest to change the channel on his "short-term pain for long-term gain" carbon tax and not have it as the focal point mid-campaign. It's ironic, in a sense, that he's even in this situation (apologizing for policies) since we often hear the parliamentary press gallery accusing the opposition (and many of its MPs) for being too negative, always criticizing the government but never saying what they believe in. I guess when you think about most democratic countries, government's most often defeat themselves as rarely is there ever an opposition party that is voted in on the basis of strong policy. It's a damn shame nobody told Stéphane this eight months ago.

Let's just say, the press' actions in this campaign have surely shed a new light (for me) on Kim Campbell's statement that elections were not the time to develop policies and programs!

Policy loser: The Tories' plan to allow youth convicted of violent crimes to be named publicly. Tough on crime legislation always sounds very persuasive (especially to the conservative base), but the ideas being touted here are about as practical as rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. I mean honestly, saying in one breath you will treat 14 years olds like adult criminals, but in another, you see them as incapable of making an adult decision. Come on.

Losers: Harper and his conservative strategists for going overboard in their attempt to reach out to Quebec nationalist. Like a couple of conservative leaders before him, specifically Sir Robert Borden and Brian Mulroney, Harper has decided to groom the path for a political alliance with the nationalist in Quebec. Yes, there's no question it will likely lead to electoral success in La Belle province, unfortunately, like others that have attempted such a coalition in the past, the end result is only a few years of success leading to certain failure. If Harper really wants to promote conservatism and federalism in Quebec, he certainly won't get there by attempting to cement a short-term relationship with disenchanted nationalist. The bottom line is, he has to start rewarding federalist.

Loser: Green party leader Elizabeth May for campaigning whistle-stop style. Let's just say, this is all quite ironic since this style of campaigning went out in the 50s with Dief "the chief", and just yesterday, a certain press gallery member suggested that May's policies were just as archaic. I think her exact words were "not harnessing modernity" and "taking us back to life before electricity and the combustion engine." Ouch.

Anyway, if this kind of stuff does happen to interest you, here's Macleans Nancy Macdonald's blog covering the daily accounts of the whistle-stop tour. It's kinda like the blog version of a very bad episode of the Global soap opera, Train 48. Who knows, now that the show is canceled, maybe they'll turn May's run into a reality show giving Sheila Copps and Carolyn Parrish another shot at an acting career. God help us all!

(You just gotta know spinks loves the apron)

Local losers: People who think it's a joke to vandalize election signs. Not cool.

NBers Paint the Political Picture Caption Contest Semaine Deux&trade

2008-09-22T20:43:00.010-03:00

Almost forgot the weekly installment of our caption contest. Here's this week's photos, couldn't narrow it down to just one. Anyway, ready, set, go to town.

* Week 1 winner: Le Politico

Day 16: Quick hitters with some relevance

2008-09-22T12:56:00.028-03:00

Local Winner: Former New Brunswick Premier Frank McKenna. He's a two-time winner here at Paint the Political Picture and deservedly so. This time McKenna has used his contacts as a diplomat (i.e. friends in high places) to secure former US president Bill Clinton as a guest speaker on global economic issues (at the Moncton Coliseum on Nov. 25). Should make for some heavy security in downtown Moncton when Billy goes out for some eats and a drink.

Loser: NDP leader Jack Layton for the manner in which he dealt with the pot-wing of his party. Let's just say, he probably knew what was going on.

Which leads me to my second winner...

Winner: Liberal party strategist for beating down the NDP (who are inching closer to the Grits in the polls) with allegations that Layton had a secret deal with “Prince of Pot,” Marc Emery and his British Columbia Marijuana party. Up until then, the NDP were on message and talking about issues. Now they've been reduced to a left-wing explanatory party.

Partial policy winner: Liberal party strategist for attempting to make the campaign about the management of the economy. This morning, Mr. Dion unveiled the party's platform which "trumpets the party's track record of sound fiscal management" and vows to balance the budget (which btw, Tim Powers has a few questions regarding the validity of the latter).

However, as you may have noticed, I used the words "partial winner". Why? Because not only are there some holes in the costing of the platform, I don't think the deliverer of the message, Dion, has the ability to sell it. In other words, it may be the winning formula, but it won't win if there is not a winner selling it. Maybe the Libs should seriously consider retiring Dion and his carbon tax formula and bring back tit Jean straight out of retirement.

Loser: MP Garth Turner for being a complete disaster for the Liberals on the campaign trail. First the CPAC door knocking incident and now this. It would seem our good friend Garth has seriously crossed-the-line with this "death watch" ad. Although, I'm sure he'll try to flip, squirm and lie his way out of it like he always does. Full marks to Le Politico and Dan Cook (not to be mistaken for Dane Cook) for exposing the real Garth Turner once again.

Day 14: Tories break out Quebec wilcard, and I, the smelling salts

2008-09-20T13:48:00.010-03:00

Said exactly three weeks ago by some erudite, political wannabee in the comments section of Politics from a New Brunswick Perspective:

Plus, with the latter being said, he would be a huge wildcard in Quebec (as a francophone spokesperson and native son) for the conservatives. Something he proposed to do for Harper back in 2006 when he was premier.

To me, putting Lord in Quebec would be the TSN turning point for the Tories and their much sought out majority (it could even mean challenging a few traditional Liberal ridings on the island of Montreal because of Lord's backing of the statist bilingual policy). Something native Quebecers have always been suspicious of ever since the formation of the reform party (and the comments made in the 1997 election about La Belle province).

Today's headline/subheads [and quotes] in the Telegraph Journal:

"..., Bernard Lord is taking a grassroots approach to convince voters here and in Quebec that Conservative Leader Stephen Harper is the right man for these troubled economic times.

[...]

Over the coming three weeks Lord, the only francophone co-chair for the federal Conservative campaign, will use his seven years' experience as premier and his reputation as a moderate to help Stephen Harper win seats in Quebec and in Atlantic Canada."

Wow, some unfrozen Tory strategist deep underground in the Gloucester lair took the advice of this ol' hack: time to break out the homemade Sackville smelling salts!

Silence

2008-09-19T18:10:00.000-03:00

Sorry to have gone radio silent the past few days (and thanks to NBT for keepin' things rollin'). I've been working on, and hope to post by the end of the weekend, a relatively complex (i.e. complex for me, easy for experts) seat projection model that I will be applying for the duration of the election.

Stay tuned.

Harper taking on a big risk with Ritz

2008-09-18T15:09:00.025-03:00

Adam Radwanski's take regarding the PM's handling of the Gerry Ritz affair:

It's now been well more than 12 hours since the comic stylings of Gerry Ritz came to light. A good case can be made that Stephen Harper should've dumped him from cabinet on the spot. But having stuck with him this far, you'd better hope for Harper's sake that he's sticking with him for the long haul.

To dump him immediately would've led to a day or two of bad press, but killed the story and enhanced Harper's reputation for decisiveness. Sticking with him arguably avoids adding more legitimacy to the comments as a full-blown scandal, and at least proves Harper loyal (if a little stubborn). But if he dumps him after a day or two of bad press, he'll get the worst of all worlds - a legitimate scandal with legs that calls into question the Conservative leader's instincts and proves he won't hold strong in the face of bad press.

Adam's right, by firing Mr. Ritz on the spot, the PM would not only be demonstrating his true decisiveness as a leader, he would be clearly indicating to Canadians that a Prime Minister will not tolerate a member of the cabinet embarrassing him in public in such a manner. Instead, he has decided to stand by his Ag minister. So if Harper buckles on this one now, the opposition party's will not train their guns on Mr. Ritz, but on the head of government, Mr. Harper, who twiddled his thumbs even as Canadians and the families themselves showed their disdain and outrage over Ritz's insensitive remarks regarding the listeriosis victims.

Just so you know, as a conservative, I admire Harper's loyalty on this one, but I deplore his stubbornness even more. I hope when he made this decision that he realized that hangin' in with Ritz could very well put him at a serious political disadvantage in this campaign.

It's a big risk, however, it's his head on the platter [now] if it backfires.

Opposition phrase of the next few days: conservative insensitivity?

2008-09-18T11:11:00.035-03:00

In politics, stubbornness can always work for and against a leader depending on the political circumstances. And now that Harper has dug in his heels "big time" with the press on Ritzgate, I see a certain someone is using this as a gateway to rekindle his chances with seasonal workers (and potential switch voters) in outlying regions of Quebec:

"They are showing total insensitivity toward the regions," he said during a stop at this town on the Baie-des-Chaleurs, where the economy is based on tourism and fishing. "It shows that a Conservative majority would be bad for the regions."

Methinks there will be a swift resignation in the next few days if the polls start to move unfavorably in La belle province for Mr. Harper. Never count out that ol' crafty separatist.

Day 12: A few quick hitters this A.M.

2008-09-18T11:11:00.022-03:00

Loser: Conservative Agricultural Minister Gerry Ritz for obvious reasons. Not only do his insensitive comments effect his own campaign and future within the party, his bonehead remarks do absoutely nothing for the rest of the hardworking conservative candidates who are in tight battles and are trying to fend off the notion that Harper and his party are cold and calculating. I'm sure I'll get a lot of criticism for saying this, but this is one conservative camper that thinks that he should save his boss the trouble and resign his post. Canadians, and the families of the listeriosis victims, deserve no less.

Local Losers: New Brunswick, PEI and Nova Scotia federal Tories. No, they weren't personally guilty of anything. They just ended up in the wrong place at the wrong time on this day. And for the few who were running decent, clean and positive campaigns, the Ritz comment will only taint all that by bringing that good message off the rails and back to the fact that Harper and his party are uncaring and insensitive about maritimers (and Canadians in general). Let's just say, I now expect the "defeatist" line to be trotted out by many Liberals for the remainder of the campaign.

Policy loser: Green party leader Elizabeth May for not only suggesting a GST hike, but for the fact that she omitted important specifics regarding her carbon tax plan. It's the same policy as last year which also called for a $50-a-tonne reduction on fossil fuels, however, this time she failed to tell Canadians that this reduction would [again] mean a 12 cent increase in gas prices at the pumps. A clever (but dishonest) omission since many Canadians are struggling with high gas prices already. I think many will agree that we don't need a policy that will put us over the top in these trying times.

Day 11: What caught my right wing eye

2008-09-17T10:55:00.043-03:00

Loser: The Liberal campaign plane, or as it's known around Bourque circles, "Air Dud." Let's just say that enough has already been made about the so-called grumblings amongst Liberal party insiders regarding the poor strategy of the Dion campaign that they didn't need last nights malfunction [generator gaffe] to add fuel to the fire. The Boeing 737 Air Inuit has now become the symbol of the Liberal campaign as they've both become the butt-of-jokes.

Winners: NDP strategists for running a disciplined campaign thus far and not getting knocked off message. Since the Ryan Sparrow gaffe last week, Mr. Layton has been offering Canadians a steady, incremental dose of left-wing policies. Policies that seem to be playing well in parts of Ontario where the manufacturing sector has been hit hard recently. Not to mention, policies that are propelling them in the polls as they're now only trailing the grits by 4 percentage points nationally according to a recent Ekos Research poll.

Local Loser: Nova Scotia Liberal Scott Brison for appearing aloof and uninterested in his leaders speech on catastrophic drug coverage in Halifax yesterday. And to add insult to injury, Brison's body language seemed to perk up (and become more positive) when fellow Liberal Bob Rae took over the podium. Not a good way to show confidence in your leader.

Loser: Halton Liberal MP Garth Turner, or as Conservative blogger Stephen Taylor calls him, "Progressive-Conservative-turned-broadcaster-turned-Conservative-turned-Independent-
turned-Green tease-turned-Liberal MP", for not being upfront with CPAC broadcasters. With what appeared to most as a random door knocking stop for Turner, turned out to be anything but. Apparently CPAC were under the impression that they had just filmed footage of an independent minded Halton constituent who was happy with Dion's Green Shift plan. Unfortunately, for Turner, he left out a couple of key variables: 1) the gentlemen being filmed at the door was not some random individual, he was a card carrying Liberal and 2) to add insult to injury, he was the son of longtime Turner assistant, Esther Shaye. So much for CPAC measuring the independent pulse of Canadians at the door. Furthermore, when pressed on the issue by the CBC and CPAC, Turner became very combative (unwilling to give them full disclosure) and pleaded the fifth until it was too uncomfortable to do so anymore. Let's just say that b/c of this, you have probably heard the last of Garth in Halton as an MP.

Incremental socialism: Mr. Layton goes back to Ottawa much stronger

2008-09-16T20:26:00.027-03:00

Even though NDP leader Jack Layton has been campaigning right across the country on the slogan of "Harper is the wrong kind of strong", you would be surprised at how much the two men have in common. No, not on policy (as they are diametrically opposed on pretty much every issue), but their strategic style. They are both incrementalist. Harper, it would seem, governs that way. And in much the same fashion, Layton has been closing the gap on the trail and is now within striking distance of overtaking his primary opponent, the Liberals.

Let Ekos Research President Frank Graves explain this change:

“This change has been taking place in small increments, day after day since the prospect of an election loomed at the end of August,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “The Liberals have gradually slipped from the high 20s into the low 20s. The New Democrats, meanwhile, have been edging up.”
The gap between the Liberals and the New Democrats in this latest poll is just four percentage points. Although it is clear that the Liberals retain a small edge, on some days the difference is within the margin of error.

I guess it wasn't bad strategy after all to turn their attention to Layton and the NDP.

***

Day 10: A few quick hitters this A.M.

2008-09-16T10:27:00.024-03:00

Losers: Liberal war room for going neg on Harper. For the second consecutive week, Dion's carbon tax just isn't clicking with Canadians - so what to do? Hey, let's make some stuff up about the PM. Good to see the Liberals learned so much from the 2006 campaign.

Policy loser: Stéphane Dion's carbon tax. For crying out loud, it's Day 10 of the campaign and Dion's still explaining his policy to those that don't seem understand it. Don't believe me? Well, I just got through watching CBC Newsworld this morning and he was telling reporters (and members of the PPG) in Halifax to go to the Liberal website and punch in a few numbers to see how much a family would get back in taxes with his plan. It got so bad that Bob Rae, yes Bob Rae, had to come in and rescue his leader before it got out-of-hand. Could just be me, but I don't see the Green Shift making it over the finish line in this campaign. In other words, if he is still explaining it by the end of this week, the backroom boys of the Liberal party will pressure him to pull the plug on it.

Winner: Whichever Liberal strategist made the decision to drop Dion from their most recent ad. I think the Grits now realize that this is not about him winning anymore, it's about the Liberal partysaving face and having a party left after the 14th of October.

Losers: Five ex-Bloc MPs for criticizing their former boss by saying their party "has lost its raison d'être and relevance in Ottawa and become a mouthpiece for Quebec's powerful union movement." And b/c of this, it has vaulted Duceppe's campaign into serious damage control.

Local Winner: Yes, it's a Liberal!! None other then former NB Premier Frank McKenna for cleverly distancing himself from this whole Dion mess. And hey, what better way to ~~boost your~~ ~~star image~~ boost relief efforts, then to team up with high profile actor Matt Damon.

It's not the message, it's the messenger

2008-09-15T20:43:00.024-03:00

I see there are a lot of Liberals who are touting the ad below as a small victory for the Dion team. To tell you the truth, it's not all that bad. Notwithstanding the early negative content, the latter part of this ad does a pretty good job of clearly outlining what Dion has been having trouble with since the inception of this campaign...that being, selling the so-called positive "revenue aspects" of his Green Shift plan in small bullet points so that the 'Average Joe' on the street can understand it. However, as good as this ad is, it won't make a world of difference with Canadians if Mr. Dion can't find a way to relay this message in public and on the hustings in front of large crowds of potential supporters.

Plus, if the ad accomplishes what it set out to do (and starts to resonate with the general public), won't this just make more people demand the same type of clarity from Dion before buying into the Shift? Can't say for certain, but after seeing him in action these past few days, is raising the bar really a good idea at this point? Shouldn't handlers be lowering it?

Well, so much for the advice, eh Dion?

2008-09-15T14:38:00.037-03:00

Earlier this morning in a post giving prudent advice (sarcasm obviously all mine) to all five federal leaders, I mentioned that if Stéphane Dion is to ever have any chance of turning this thing around in his favour, "he must find a way to hone his message regarding the Green Shift plan. At the moment, not only does he have conflicting messages being touted internally by members of his own caucus (and party), the tax side seems to be dominating in the press over the revenue side of the policy. If he is unable to change this and explain to Canadians in the next two weeks why this policy would be good for the economy (and the environment for that matter), his campaign will be dead in the water"

Well, so much for that advice as the pancake breakfast had barely digested on the rock and a former Liberal Minister in Paul Martin's government, John Efford, was offering up his own personal opinion (advice) to Newfoundland and Labradorians regarding the Green Shift plan.

Here's Efford's exact words from a Toronto Star report:

Newfoundlanders are "afraid' of Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion's carbon tax, says a former Liberal cabinet minister.
John Efford said people in the province may distrust Prime Minister Stephen Harper, but they're afraid that the proposed carbon tax is going drive up the cost of fuel.
"I can tell you the average person on the street don't understand the carbon tax," Effort, a former natural resources minister, told reporters after listening to Dion speak in St. John's.
"They are afraid of that," he said, noting that gasoline was selling in Newfoundland this morning at $1.49 a litre.
Efford, who served in Paul Martin's Liberal government, said he realizes it is too late for Dion to ditch the policy, but "I think he has got a big sell on his hands."

Let me tell u, if you're Liberal leader Stéphane Dion, you can't be liking the way things are already shaping up. And it's only Monday for cripes sakes.

Update: I see 1 important Lib is in panic mode: "Should they go neg? Will they?...You know what I think, I suspect. This isn't about one man's views, anymore. It's about protecting the Liberal Party from a decade or more in the wilderness." This, coming from a guy who has had a good handle on such things over the yrs (from a winning perspective, that is).

NBers Paint the Political Picture Caption Contest&trade

2008-09-15T13:32:00.013-03:00

I've decided that every Monday from here on out I will hold a caption contest. Note to readers: I'm officially outta material today (too much golf I suppose)...and b/c a photo post is just that much easier (Sorry Charles!!) Here's the inaugural pic folks (go to town):

* Winner declared on Sunday

Day 9: A bit of advice for all five leaders as we head into week 2

2008-09-15T10:37:00.023-03:00

Stéphane Dion: He must find a way to hone his message regarding the Green Shift plan. At the moment, not only does he have conflicting messages being touted internally by members of his own caucus, the tax side seems to be dominating in the press over the revenue side of the policy. If he is unable to change this and explain to Canadians in the next two weeks why this policy would be good for the economy (and the environment for that matter), his campaign will be dead in the water as left-wing and centrist voters will start peeling off into the hands of the NDP and Greens. To put it mildly, he has very little time to pull it together.

Jack Layton: Simple. Keep doing what you've been doing. Hey, something must be working for Jack and the NDP as the Tories have now refocused and set their sights on his party.

Gilles Duceppe: The theme coming out of the Quebec press this morning seems to be that the Bloc have lost their raison d’être (sense of purpose). If Duceppe doesn't want to see his movement reduced to a rump on the 12th, he has to find a way to separate himself (and his party) from the Tories. And asking federalists to support his party and offering to campaign with the Tories on Quebec nationhood just won't get it done. To tell you the truth, it will only speed up the process of more federalists joining lapsed sovereignists in the Tory camp.

Update: And for the record, this wasn't the kind of separation I had in mind: "Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe has taken umbrage because a candidate for the Conservative Party, Nicole Charbonneau Barron, running in the South Shore Montreal riding of St Bruno-St Hubert, is a member of Opus Dei, a personal prelature within the Catholic church. [...] Attempting to whip up fears that the Tories want to take away a woman’s right to choose, Duceppe complained that “those people are against a lot of things that are generally accepted in Quebec." Those people? Wow, I guess in the world of Gilles Duceppe, desperate times require desperate measures. What's that saying? All is fair in love and ~~war~~ campaigns.

Elizabeth May: You got serious momentum after fighting hard to be included in the debates. However, since then, your campaign has been direction less, and quite frankly, open to attack. Time to get back up, dust yourself off, stop explaining and start talking about the issues that matter to Canadians. Most notably climate change and the economy.

Stephen Harper: Get control of your war room. Other then that, make this week about policy just like you did in December of 2005. Roll 'em out one by one and control the agenda.

Previous Quick Hitters: Day 7 & 8, Day 6, Day 5, Day 4, Day 3, Day 2

Note to Harper: This is not a sign you are winning over women voters

2008-09-14T15:58:00.040-03:00

This song, by a girl that goes by the internet handle of Machine girl, seems to be getting a bit of attention the past few days (or as the hip kids say, "it's going viral").

Anyway, I'm as conservative as the next guy (probably even more so as a practicing Libertarian), but let's get a grip here folks, anybody that has a crush on somebody as dry as Harper (and produces a song about it to boot) really needs to get out more. Hey, don't be hatin' young tories, even Harper himself admitted two yrs ago that he needed to lighten up a bit and get with the program (as he said he has the charisma of an accountant).

Not that he really needed anymore reminding of this. lol

So it is with this that I hope Machine Girl finds a new hobby. Other then watching stiff guys in blue suits on CPAC, that is. ;) I'm mean honestly, I really couldn't take another song, especially if it's about someone having a crush on Martin Stringer or Ken Rockburn.

Update: For the record, I didn't mean "lighten up" in a Kady O'Malley, Scott Reid and Andrew Potter type of way.

Sign wars

2008-09-14T14:00:00.003-03:00

I had the opportunity this weekend to spend a bit of time in about a dozen ridings in NB and NS driving to a few visits. I was really surprised that there seemed to be very few Conservative signs up while the Liberals seemed to have their signs up in almost every riding.

For having such a disorganized campaign nationally, it was surprising to see the Liberals ahead of the game in terms of having signs printed, distributed and up. Greg Thompson has some of his signs up but they are signs from last time around. The only new Conservative signs I saw were of a candidate whose name I can't recall in Halifax West who, I imagine, hasn't a snowballs chance in hell of winning.

Other than Liberals, I saw a number of Bill Casey independent signs up and a few NDP signs in South Shore--St. Margaret's. I didn't realize Gordon Earle was taking another kick at the can there and that riding may actually be in play. I'll write something more detailed on that later.

What I found really surprising though is the impressive organization of Mary Lou Babineau, the Green candidate in Fredericton. She and Liberal candidate David Innes are the only ones with signs up but she is the only one that has lawn signs deployed to any significant degree. Additionally, she has been canvassing more aggressively than others - I've spoken to people in different corners of the city and it sounds like her volunteers hit nearly every neighbourhood in town with pamphlets. Is Jack MacDougall going to put the Greens in play in Fredericton? With the NDP only nominating a candidate late this week (and one with no name recognition) one would imagine a lot of their 20% of the votes would be up for grabs. Very interesting.

Day 7 & 8: Quick hitters weekend roundup

2008-09-14T13:39:00.032-03:00

Winner: Conservative leader Stephen Harper. In campaign stops in Atlantic Canada on Friday and Saturday, the parliamentary press gallery [PPG] were relentless and continually grilled Mr. Harper about all the negatives that went on in the first week (puffins, Danny Williams, Ryan Sparrow, etc.). Despite all this, Mr. Harper was still able to remain focused, relatively poised and positive. I especially liked this response (regarding Williams' ABC tirade) from the conservative leader, "You are -- as the slogan says -- proud, strong, determined, [....] I can't tell you how to vote. No one can tell a Newfoundlander or a Labradorian how to vote. Your vote is not about personality fights. Your vote is about your own best interests."

Loser: Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe. Much has been made this week of Mr. Dion's slow start to the 2008 campaign. However, it pales in comparison to the horrible week Mr. Duceppe has had on the trail thus far. For someone who has been involved in four previous national campaigns, he sure did look uncertain, not to mention, very rookie like. Even some old Quebec supporters don't see him (or his cause in Ottawa) as useful anymore.

Policy losers: Maritime Liberals. [They] just can't seem to make up their mind on whether or not to unequivocally support their leaders Green Shift plan (as it is currently written). Let me tell you, watering down the carbon tax plan with personal exemption proposals and blatant misrepresentations makes these two federal Liberals appear to the common voter as not only indecisive, but very untrustworthy. I think it's time that Dion cleared the air here.

Losers: Pundits and pollsters who put entirely way too much weight in early (first week) poll numbers. As Paul Wells cleverly put it this week (about the over saturation of polls), "What’s it been, three hours since the last poll? Time for three more polls." Well said Wells.

Anyway, I'm not going to lie, I realize a lot of people (including myself) like to gaze at the numbers so as to find some sort of trend line. So for anybody that's interested in these kinds of things, The Toronto Star has a great poll tracker out. H/T Chantal Hébert.

Previous Quick Hitters: Day 6, Day 5, Day 4, Day 3, Day 2

It's looking like 1984 all over again

2008-09-12T17:00:00.015-03:00

And I'm not talking about George Orwell here either folks. Supposedly Mike Duffy, in the comments section of an Inkless Wells post, is telling readers "to stay tuned to CTV tonight. We’ve got a doozie of a poll." One that may be indicating we're on the verge of this. Anyway, for those of you who want more polls to get you warmed up for the Duffenator's big CTV sponsored one tonight, here ya go:

Harris/Decima: Conservatives 41%, Liberals 26%, NDP 14%, Greens 9% Bloc 9%
Nanos Research:Conservatives 38%, Liberals 31%, NDP 14%, Greens 9% Bloc 9%
Ekos Research: Conservatives 36%, Liberals 26%, NDP 19%, Greens 11% Bloc 8%
Ipsos Research: Conservatives 38%, Liberals 29%, NDP 13%, Greens 11%, Bloc 8%

H/T to P Dub (aka Inkless) as the above post is practically a plagiarized version of his great work ths afternoon. And for the record, I never cheated on my statistics exam. ;)

Day 6: A few quick hitters this A.M.

2008-09-12T10:25:00.038-03:00

Loser: Conservative party communications director Ryan Sparrow for his ill-advised email which questioned the true intentions of the father of a deceased Canadian soldier, Jim Davis, who had previously criticized the Tory government for its policy which would see troops possibly pulled out of Afghanistan by 2011. Not only did he jump the gun by calling Mr. Davis an "Iggy supporter", he has now added to the ever increasing trail of gaffes which are steadily piling up on the desk of Mr. Harper. And let's just say, I'm not the only [tory] blogger who's taking notice of all these unecessary missteps and gaffes by staffers.

Winners: Gilles Duceppe and Stéphane Dion who both, policy-wise, had one of the worst weeks of all five leaders in this campaign. However, all of their missteps were completely overshadowed by the fact that Mr. Harper, his staff and appointed candidates, were front and center in the media for three full days, and for all the wrong reasons I might add.

Winner: Jim Davis. No, he's not a politico so to speak, but the 60 year old Bridgewater, Nova Scotia resident and father of fallen soldier Cpl. Paul Davis showed his pure grace and patriotism by standing up for the mission in Afghanistan (and against Harper's musings that Canadian troops will be out of Afghanistan by 2011 even if they haven't achieved their goal of leaving behind a safe and secure country.) Not only is he a strong and proud Canadian, he demonstrated his humbleness by calling Harper to ask if he would reconsider his decision to turf communications director Ryan Sparrow for the rest of the campaign. A class move.

Local Loser: New Brunswick Premier Shawn Graham for supporting the Liberal Green ~~Shift~~
Shaft. The Premier's record has been far from stellar when it comes to the economy and taxes, which is why it comes as such a shock that he would support a policy that would be so detrimental to the promotion and sustainability of his own provincial energy hub.

Local Loser II: Saint John MP Paul Zed for supposedly suggesting that "Saint John's Irving Refinery will be exempted from Mr. Dion's carbon tax." Funny, because I clearly remember Liberal leader Stéphane Dion saying that there would be no special side deals with provinces (regarding his carbon tax). This is quite typical from Mr. Zed. [He] states one position; then it changes to suit his political circumstances. You can't have it both ways, Paul.

Local Loser III: Charlottetown MP Shawn Murphy for assuring PEI residents that they are not "going to see the green shift even if the Liberals got elected." This is [at least] the fourth Atlantic Liberal and third federal Liberal (Brison was the other) to back away from his leader's carbon tax proposal or suggest special exemptions with their home province.

Previous Quick Hitters: Day 5, Day 4, Day 3, Day 2

Hot Diggidy Dog - And you thought Canadian politics was boring?

2008-09-11T22:55:00.009-03:00

If you ever wondered where the decaying decorum in Canadian politics went?...wonder no more. Today we had a Liberal strategist accusing the Tories of hiring a LOON. We had a Blogging DOG with a PHD posting about dead SPARROWS and damaged PUFFINS. And last, but surely not least, we had BUCKDOG (aka LEFTDOG) allegedly being threatened with a possible libel suit by a Green party communications flack.

At this point, the animal forum couldn't get any worse unless the Libs brought "Slander" Klander out of "CHOW-CHOW" retirement.

"Harper up, and Dion down in new poll"

2008-09-11T16:10:00.025-03:00

That's right folks, according to a new (emphasis all mine) Corporate Research Associates Inc. poll, the Tories are making gains in the Bluenose province:

About 34 per cent of decided voters support the Conservatives, up from 27 per cent in May. Liberal support dropped to 29 per cent from 38 per cent. NDP support remained stable, the poll suggests, at 28 per cent, compared to 27 per cent in May. Green Party support remained unchanged at seven per cent.

But before all you Nova Scotia Tory wannabees get seemingly aroused over your party's new found fame, take a look at the date the poll was conducted. That's right my right-wing friends, it was conducted back in August just before the writ was dropped and well before things got a little greasy in a few Nova Scotia ridings for you guys. As I've always said, appointing candidates can be a very tricky business for any leader on the best of days. It's a little like nitroglycerine. Used in the proper fashion and when the timing is right, these freshly minted candidates can help propel your party in the right direction, filling in holes that previously existed. But if you're not careful, they can also blow up in your face. They can create a local backlash, making your party's bid all that much harder. And with the multiple explosions that happened [this week], it hard to fathom those numbers not changing one way or the other.

Moreover, not to pour more cold water on this poll, but the CRA were benchmarking the recent August numbers with the May 2008 numbers (which were quite low for the conservatives) due to a prior aggressive campaign by the Liberal caucus in the House of Commons regarding the alleged in-and-out transactions involving candidates who wrongly tried to collect rebates for ad expenses they did not incur as part of their local campaigns. Not to mention, it was pre-carbon tax. So honestly, it's not much of a bounce at all.

Anyway, the party or leader numbers are not what got my attention in this poll. Actually, it was the large number of undecided voters, forty-one per cent to be exact, who either don't have a clue, don't plan to vote or just plain refuse to tell pollsters what they are thinking. At this point, I think it's safe to guess that a majority of these individuals are probably not big Harper fans, and therefore, are mulling over their final decision. A decision which was just made that much more difficult (for more people I believe) with the riding gaffes this week. I'd say all those poor handpicked appointments pushed the undecideds well above 50 per cent. It'll be interesting to see the next CRA numbers that come out.

Accurate poll update

From Inkless:"The pollster with a mystic reputation for accuracy has his first tracking poll out, and the numbers are closer than in some other polls: 37% Conservatives, 32% Liberals, 13% NDP. Those NDP numbers are one-third lower than in other recent polls.

I happen to think the Nanos legend is a little exaggerated — there is no such thing as election-prediction accuracy this far out, because there are events — cursed events! Blessed events! — between here and the election day. But I know many of you swear by Nik as by the sun and stars, so I thought you’d want to see this."

Day 5: A few quick hitters this A.M.

2008-09-11T11:28:00.027-03:00

Winner: Green party leader Elizabeth May for obvious reasons. The decision to include her in the TV debates is huge (and a momentum booster for her populist campaign), especially since she can now have the best of both worlds. What I mean by that is she can still be depicted as the victim with the mainstream media while stealing the spotlight in the debates (as I'm sure all eyes will now be on her on Oct. 1st/2nd). Which brings me to my next pick...

Loser: Peter Mackay. I don't pretend to know what goes on behind closed doors in campaign war rooms. However, with that being said, I'll go off on a limb here and speculate that there were a few chairs kicked in downtown New Glasgow, Nova Scotia after May was let into the debates. Things just started getting interesting in Central Nova folks!

Losers: The Liberal National Executive for their lack of respect for Dion. I'm sure they thought they were sending a clear message to Mr. Dion by letting the press get their hands on this transaction, but to the common voter (and I'm sure some Liberal members), it makes the party appear as if they are a bunch of bullies who don't trust Dion to do the right thing when, and if , he loses. It truly shows you that this party is not only a bunch of sore losers, they haven't learned from their very critical past mistakes. Not ready for prime time.

Local winner: Conservative candidate Rodney Weston for putting jobs front and center in Saint John. As my good buddy nbpolitico explains about Weston's recent strategy, "he has been campaigning quite effectively against the Liberal Green Shift plan, which would impose a carbon tax. Weston's argument is that the choice is between a new refinery and new jobs or a carbon tax and no new jobs." The message must be working because I see that even provincial Liberals, like Energy Minister Jack Keir, are backing away from their federal friends on this carbon tax proposal.

Update: In other news, Dion served up pancakes in Saint John, New Brunswick today at a breakfast. And I'm not talking about the food. lol

Update II: Harper is going even further in his attack of Dion's carbon tax plan, saying it will cause "a recession."

Losers: Consortium of television networks for coming across as a bunch of high handed bullies in their handling of the television debates. On the bright side, this whole May ordeal has exposed Canada's election debate process for what it is...a complete sham.

Game changer

2008-09-11T07:55:00.000-03:00

The media consortium remains without my respect as they have altered the debate format to map on to their own measure of fairness only after the bullies stopped punching them in the gut.

In any event though, Elizabeth May's inclusion in the debates will be a game changer. One of two things are now guaranteed to happen in my opinion:

Elizabeth May will do well in the debates and the Green Party will win seats in this election; or
Elizabeth May will do poorly in the debates and the Green Party's vote will collapse, seeing them get less than 2% of the popular vote and therefore no more public funding.

To be honest, I always used to think that Elizabeth May was a huge mistake for the Greens because of her history with a somewhat non-credible organization (the Sierra Club) and that she would cause #2. Instead, she has shown fairly professional political instincts so I am more and more inclined to think that #1 will happen.

The Liberals are not running a strong campaign but are putting the environment front-and-centre; the NDP are not running a good campaign; many Canadians remain uncomfortable with Harper and may not want to vote for him but counter-intuitively still want him to be Prime Minister. The Green Party may have no better opportunity to win seats.

The Greens should have a respectable chance in Central Nova where May is pooring a lot of resources and in London North Centre and Guelph where the Greens aggressively campaigned in by-elections and should have a remaining infrastructure and voter IDs (particularly in Guelph where the by-election campaign has just morphed into a general election campaign). Finally the Greens may also have a shot in a few BC seats, such as Vancouver Centre where there is a three or four way race going on, including the former provincial Green leader who is well known having been in two provincial leaders debates.

I hope Ms. May is nervous because the future viability of her party rests in her hands. It is now or never for the Greens.

What's in store for the NDP?

2008-09-10T14:57:00.004-03:00

I am big believer in the idea that history repeats itself and that if you can understand the core trends of the present, you can predict the future by looking at the core trends of the past.

Quite a while back, I did an analysis of NDP results since its predecessor the CCF was created in 1935.

Interesting facts: the NDP has never gained seats for more than two consecutive elections; the NDP has never gained seats when a conservative party won a majority.

The NDP won extra seats in 2004 and then some more in 2006. Therefore, historically they shouldn't win seats in this election. If the Conservatives were to win a majority, it would be that much less likely for them to win more seats.

Food for thought.

New Brunswick ridings updated

2008-09-10T14:12:00.004-03:00

You can check out the full story on my other blog, but I am moving Saint John from leans Liberal to leans Conservative.

This makes my projection 6 Conservatives (+3), 3 Liberals (-3) and 1 New Democrat (n/c) for New Brunswick.

Let May in

2008-09-10T10:53:00.006-03:00

I am a little tortured on this point, but I am going to make the case for why Elizabeth May should be allowed in the leader's debate.

I do not know all of the issues that the consortium of broadcasters examines in determining who will be included in the debate. I am moved, but not convinced, by the Greens arguments as to why they should have been included.

Is two-straight elections winning no seats but more the double the number of voters required to get federal funding and a floor-crossing MP enough to qualify? That is a pretty subjective question so one needs to look to precedent. The obvious precedent being the inclusion of the Reform Party and the Bloc Québécois in 1993.

Let's look at their situations then:

Reform: Contested one general election before in which they won no seats and 2.1% of the vote and later elected one MP in a by-election;
Bloc: Never before contested a general election, elected no MPs (though one MP was elected as an indpendent and immediately joined their caucus before they were a registered party) and about 7 floor-crossing MPs.

It would be fair to argue that the Greens have about as much legitimacy as those two precedents and those two parties went on to win the second and third most seats in 1993. Would they have been able to do that had they not been included in the debates?

To quote Barack Obama, "it is above my pay grade" to rule whether or not the Greens have as much right as Reform and/or the Bloc did in 1993 (which is the fair measure).

But frankly, this point is moot. As far as I can read it, the consortium did rule that the Greens met the test (emphasis added):

During the debate negotiations, (Conservative representative Michael) Coates told the broadcasters that Mr. Harper would not share the stage with the leader of the Green Party, which dashed Elizabeth May's hopes of participating.

Indeed, if you read the consortium's own release, it seems even clearer:

The Consortium approached the parties to explore the possibility of including the Green Party in all or part of the Leaders' Debates. However, three parties opposed its inclusion and it became clear that if the Green Party were included, there would be no Leaders' Debates. In the interest of Canadians, the Consortium has determined that it is better to broadcast the debates with the four major party leaders, rather than not at all.

It is frankly pathetic that this group would allow themselves to be bullied. These are journalistic organizations who are supposed to be the "refs" in an election and ensure fairness. We all know that they largely fail to live up to that standard, but this is one of the worst examples I've ever seen.

The media, who claims its goal is to present us with a fair picture of what is going on, determines it is fair to include the Green Party. Some of the other leaders say they don't like it, so the consortium buckles. Instead, they should have invited all participants who they felt it would be fair to invite and let the leaders decide if it was in their interest to boycott an event and allow their opponents to criticize them without being answered. The media should have called the other parties' bluff. This is a disgraceful forfeiture of their supposed high ground.

Update (nb taxpayer)

Be careful what you wish for nbpolitico, cuz you just might get it.

Day 4: A few quick hitters (and shitters) ;) this A.M.

2008-09-10T10:04:00.018-03:00

Losers: The Tories for obvious reasons, or as my blogging partner says Poopgate. Anyway, there is no question that a few Tory operatives screwed up yesterday by adding that feature to the ad, however, the larger question here is whether or not this will end up being more damage to the conservatives then just a one day story. A game changer so to speak (much like beer and popcorn was for Harper in '06 and the distorted face ad was for Chretien in '93). Only time will tell.

Winner: Conservative leader Stephen Harper for owning up to his party's obvious error in judgement yesterday. That should be automatic you say? Well, not exactly. We all remember back in 2004 when he dug his heels in deep and didn't back down "from the substance of a party news release attacking Paul Martin and the Liberals on child pornography." He's definitely come a long way from four years ago and deserves credit for his new found humility. Let's now see if he sidesteps this messy gaffe like some in the MSM are already claiming. :)

Local Losers: repeat winner, Atlantic Tory strategist (specifically in Nova Scotia). The last two days have been disastrous for the Bluenose Tories (at least it has been for those who are still supoorting the party). I wouldn't be surprised to see a resignation come out of all this. However, that's probably not likely since our neck of the woods (and what happens to local candidates) seems to have been overshadowed by the leaders tour. Not to mention, the chap in the Tory war room who was blamed for Puffingate gave them a lifeline.

Loser: Gilles Duceppe. This was an easy choice as it's day four of the campaign and the Bloc leader has yet to have a good day on the campaign trail in La Belle province. To put it mildly, campaign number five could be a very bumpy ride for the veteran separatist leader.

Policy winner: Jack Layton. Yes, I said it. Jack Layton. The leader of the NDP party scored critical points in battleground Ontario yesterday by criticizing the conservative's economic policies in central Canada, and vowing to protect Ontario jobs. Extra points for doing it in a city, Thunder Bay, that has been hard-hit by paper mill closures. Looks like he will remain focused on this message again today where he will continue to hammer away at the loss of manufacturing jobs. All this while the Tories consume themselves with Puffingate.

The problem with Atlantic polling breakdowns

2008-09-09T20:49:00.003-03:00

When Atlantic Canadian numbers are broken out of a national poll, they begin as suspect because their sample is so small it likely has a margin of error that is greater than 10%. But that is just the beginning of the problem.

Atlantic Canada is not a homogeneous region. In all elections from 2000 forward (and to a lesser extent 1997), NDP poll numbers are misleadingly low. This is because while the NDP polls well in Nova Scotia and ok in New Brunswick (thanks to Yvon Godin scoring over 50% in his riding), they have been in the toilet in PEI and Newfoundland. Thus, any substantial numbers from Nova Scotia are washed away and muted.

This election will be much worse. I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories were polling below 15% in Newfoundland & Labrador thanks to Danny's popularity and visceral opposition to them. Similarly, the Tory numbers are likely at 2006 levels or less in Nova Scotia due to lingering anxiety over the Atlantic Accord. What non-Maritimers fail to realize is that the Atlantic Accord would have done nothing for New Brunswick nor for PEI and in fact, some felt it advantaged NS and NL to our disadvantage.

Therefore if the Tories are polling at 35% in Atlantic Canada, they could well be at 55% in NB, 45% in PEI, 30% in NS and 15% in NL. Even with a proper sample, Atlantic-wide numbers will be largely meaningless, especially this time around.

Every federal election, CRA does a poll with a sample of about 800 per province so we can get a real picture. It will be especially important this year. I can't wait.

What's going on in Nova Scotia?

2008-09-09T19:28:00.027-03:00

Though I'm not fully convinced of their methodology (the average of ridings), the recent Strategic Counsel poll seems to suggest that the Tories are making significant gains in the battleground ridings of three key provinces (BC, Ont and Que). With that being said, what on earth is happening with them [Tories] in the Bluenose province as I see another one of their last minute candidates is drawing negative press (click on image for full story):

Update
Back to the polls. Here's a must read conversation between two leading Canadian pollsters regarding the battleground ridings and where the Tory's will most likely hold onto their gains?

Update II
What's the chances that she was not fully vetted by the local EDA (if they have one)?

Update III (from nbpolitico)
She has dropped out as a candidate. This is quite embarassing for the governing party - two ridiculously ill thought candidates in the same province? Whoever is in charge of candidate selection for the CPC in NS should be the next to resign.

Update IV
Is it me, or is the Herald starting to resemble the "daily black cloud" for conservative strategists in Nova Scotia? Another one of their "late to the game" candidates falls flat with the locals.

Are bloggers getting the upper hand on the MSM?

2008-09-09T18:03:00.010-03:00

It sure seems to be heading in that direction. If you don't believe it, look at what one person can accomplish with just a camera and a blog (Funny b/c I've had so many of these types of conversations. Now with technology, they can go viral in nano seconds):

Poopgate

2008-09-09T14:04:00.003-03:00

The media is all over a video as part of the Conservative's notaleader.ca website that depicted a puffin pooping on Stéphane Dion.

The Conservatives promptly removed the pooping scene from the animation (though a puffin still flies by).

The media coverage of this seems a bit overblown, but it reminds me a bit of football ref overcompensating for a bad call in the first quarter. The media was also all over Michael Ignatieff when he made the joke that "(t)hey hide their excrement ... (t)his seems to me a symbol for what our party should be."

Both were a bit silly, this animation is possibly a bit more of a story but both were definately overblown.

The Joel Bernard question

2008-09-09T12:18:00.006-03:00

NBT says in a round-up post this morning:

Losers: Atlantic Tory strategists for parachuting a candidate into Bill Casey's riding of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley. I said this riding could have an ill effect on other campaigns throughout the province (as well as neighbouring provinces), and it hasn't disappointed. The perception of the party has plummeted considerably in just two days because of this bonehead decision made in Ottawa. If I were a Tory in a winnable riding, I'd be furious.

This really is unseemly.

I know when I lived in Ontario, and even today when, in my job, I work with people from Ontario, that an unfortunately high number of them really do have an illogical misunderstanding of how things work out here in the Atlantic.

You would never hear someone from Ontario ask a Manitoban, "oh, well you must have all of the government/business contacts in Saskatchewan?" or something along those lines. They are distinct provinces and they would share no more in common than Ontario and Quebec or Ontario and Manitoba - other neighbouring provinces. But all the time you'll hear, "oh, well New Brunswicker, you must know all about Newfoundland, it's the same thing anyway right?"

This is the sort of mentality that is involved in the Joel Bernard pick. This will be big news Nova Scotia. And NBT is right, a bad riding could become a series of bad ridings because of this move. I imagine quite a few people in Pictou County read the Truro Daily News which, I imagine, will be all over this.

This could hurt Peter Mackay quite a bit.

My question is, ok, it is one thing for Conservative HQ to be dominated by those who may not understand Atlantic Canada and the fact that there are four provinces here. But why didn't Peter MacKay know better? Ok, maybe he wasn't kept in the loop. But, why didn't Joel Bernard know better??

Day 3: A few quick hitters this A.M.

2008-09-09T09:54:00.009-03:00

Losers: Atlantic Tory strategists for parachuting a candidate into Bill Casey's riding of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley. I said this riding could have an ill effect on other campaigns throughout the province (as well as neighbouring provinces), and it hasn't disappointed. The perception of the party has plummeted considerably in just two days because of this bonehead decision made in Ottawa. If I were a Tory in a winnable riding, I'd be furious.

Winner: Elizabeth May for getting booted from the debates. We all know the media loves a victim. And because it was an unfair move by Big Networks (all men as she pointed out), she’ll get a second look by a lot of folks who are not only turned off by the campaign vitriol, but disgusted with the process in general. Furthermore, she has pushed the news cycle for two days on this issue. Good (and free) PR for her. Update: It's now morphed into a website.

Loser: Stéphane Dion for calling Harper a "liar". With so many uncertainties about Dion and his party's policies, he ends up being the lead for all the wrong reasons today (some in the local MSM have even run with it ). Not good for someone who needs to clearly define himself and fast.

Losers: Both parties for trying to set the agenda way too early (6 a.m. for the Tories) Yikes! Methinks the press will beat this to death until they both capitulate and let them sleep in.

Local Winner: Conservative candidate Daniel Allain for drawing a huge crowd at his " Campaign for Change Rally" at the Crown Plaza and gaining considerable momentum in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe. It would seem that Allain, much like Barack Obama, has made excellent use of Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in his bid to dethrone the Liberal incumbent, Brian Murphy. Moreover, this strategy could go a long way in casting him as a young, capable candidate who is ready to take on the tough challenges in a complex world. Other politicians in NB, both federal and provincial, should definitely be taking notice.

Policy losers: The Liberals and Dion. Accused yesterday of being a "gamble" by the Tories, twenty-four hours later Dion has turned from a gamble to a gambler, promising to "double up" on the $1,200-a-year child care allowance and restore the court challenges program. I think people will see through this "promise everything" style of campaigning, especially if it involves their own money.

There's something different about you...

2008-09-08T22:55:00.029-03:00

...did you get a haircut?

Both the Tories and Liberals have ads out showcasing their teams in La Belle province. Not much there to talk about other then two possible governing parties trying to mask a few weaknesses and obstacles that exist for them in Quebec via a cheesy ad.

One thing which I thought was weird (maybe I've been away from Ottawa too long) was the fact that all the Tories around the table, except Josée Verner, were wearing some kind of light blue, unbuttoned dress shirt. However, when they emerged from the old style country house, VOILA, all of them had ties and two of them miraculously had on white dress shirts. All I can think of is that they sweat a lot around their boss and needed a change of shirt pour vrais (sorry for the cheesy line, just trying to blend in).

Anyway, I guess being around Harper really does require a full dose of Gillette Clinical Strength Antiperspirant these days.

[click straight to Youtube to view video]

NBer and former Tory staffer to run against Casey

2008-09-08T20:18:00.016-03:00

Nobody said politics was fair

Steven Maher from the Chronicle Herald is reporting that former political staffer, Joel Bernard, will be carrying the conservative banner in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley.

Let's just say that parachuting in a candidate from outside the province will definitely pose a host of problems for the Tories, but one thing is for certain, things will definitely start heating up in that riding. I wonder if MacKay and Keddy will campaign on Joel's behalf and against their former friend and colleague?

Regardless, Mr. Casey still had the line of the day for Day 2 of the campaign regarding his new political opponent: "I’m looking forward to introducing him to the riding,” he said. “I don’t think he’s ever been here before, so I’ll enjoy introducing him to Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley.” Ouch!

Read full story from the Herald.

Related: Will Bill Casey's campaign spill over into NB?

Update: Thanks to nbpolitico, we find that out that Joel Bernard was a former MLA and deputy speaker in the NB legislature. Nothing like being undersold by the Halifax press. ;)

New Brunswick battlegrounds

2008-09-08T19:26:00.001-03:00

Part of a series on Atlantic ridings

Fredericton (currently Liberal) *incumbent retiring
This is the only open seat in New Brunswick. The Liberals have nominated airport CEO David Innes and the Conservatives have nominated PC MLA and former provincial minister Keith Ashfield. Both candidates are "boring old white guys."

Ashfield represents a provincial riding which lies almost entirely in New Brunswick Southwest, though its largest community (New Maryland) is in this federal riding and Ashfield himself hails from Lincoln. He is a long time party guy (ran unsuccessfully in 1991 before winning in 1999, 2003 and 2006) and knows how things are done. He has been campaigning almost full time since being nominated. Innes is more of a political neophyte, and has not been able to devote as much time to campaigning as Ashfield has, due to a busy day job.

The outcome of the election could depend on whether left-wing voters vote NDP or stay home (a likely Conservative win) or vote Liberal. The NDP does not currently have a candidate, the one they had previously nominated stepped down and endorsed Innes the day he was nominated. Notwithstanding that, I will very tentatively class this as leans Conservative gain.

Madawaska—Restigouche (currently Liberal)
This is something of a bellweather - both of its predecessors (Madawaska-Victoria and Restigouche-Chaleur) tended to go with the government. In 2006, the current incarnation missed that, but just by a hair. We'll be seeing a re-match between incumbent Liberal J.C. D'Amours and 1980s-era provinicial minister Jean-Pierre Ouellet.

The popular NDP candidate, Rodolphe Martin, is not running this time. Normally that would be good news for the Liberals but Martin's votes came from blue collar forestry workers who are just as likely (or maybe more likely) to go to Ouellet as they are to D'Amours. I would say this seat leans Conservative gain.

Miramichi (currently Liberal)
This is a fairly safe Liberal seat. Charlie Hubbard had reason to worry earlier in the cycle when the Conservatives had nominated well known and well liked businessman Bill Tozer. Tozer has since stepped down and, barring another remarkable candidate, the seat should stay safely Liberal hold.

Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe (currently Liberal)
Although former mayor Brian Murphy doesn't have quite the stranglehold his predecessor Claudette Bradshaw had here, he won by a healthy margin in 2006. However, the Conservatives have nominated Daniel Allain, a fluently bilingual individual with a record of public service inside and outside of politics who may be formidable. The difference between Bradshaw in 2004 and Murphy in 2006 was 11% (59% vs. 48%). Allain certainly faces an uphill battle but this is interesting enough for to a bit unsure and say leans Liberal hold.

Saint John (currently Liberal)
Who was the quote, "the reports of my death are greatly exagerated," attributed to? If you said Paul Zed, I wouldn't be surprised. Many pundits wrote Zed off for dead in 2004 and 2006 but he won both times. But, Zed only won by four points (43% to 39%) in 2006. He'll face Rodney Weston a former agriculture minister and chief of staff to Bernard Lord. Weston, while well regarded by the political class in Fredericton and by the media, was defeated in his attempt for re-election in 2003 despite representing a conservative riding. Weston is from rural Saint John County and his old riding (Saint John-Fundy) only includes a small part of the city. I am not sure how well he would play in the city proper and the higher-end suburbs. For now the seat leans Liberal but a closer examination is warranted.

NB: CPC +2, Lib -2, NDP n/c

Nova Scotia battlegrounds

2008-09-08T19:25:00.003-03:00

Part of a series on Atlantic ridings

Central Nova (currently Conservative)
This is going to be a very interesting race. Most people would assume Peter Mackay would walk away with this and that Elizabeth May's run here is simply symbolic. However, May has had a surprising political canny since taking over as leader of the Greens and I think that there was a lot more than symbolism in play in her picking this seat. She has lived in Ottawa for many years so why not run in Ottawa Centre, one of the strongest Green seats in the country? She grew up in Cape Breton, so if she was going to run in Nova Scotia, why not run there?

I think she chose a riding where she had some tangible claim to roots but one where the Liberals knew they had no chance of winning. This way she would be more likely to score the deal to run unopposed by the Libeals. In 2006, the Liberals ran third. The race was between Mackay and NDPer Alexis MacDonald. The result? A much-closer-than-generally-realized 40.7% to 32.9%. May chose Central Nova only after the popular MacDonald announced she would not be a candidate. The base NDP vote in Central Nova has always been more in the range of 10-15%. It was 11% and 19% the years that favourite daughter Alexa McDonough led the NDP.

In 2006, Peter MacKay got less than 41% of the vote. In 2008, the NDP will have a far weaker candidate, the Liberals will have no candidate and Elizabeth May will likely be devoting a lot of time and money into this riding. May's candidacy in London North Centre managed to improve the Green score in a tightly contested riding by over 20% only 11 months after the preceeding election and only 5 weeks after she announced her candidacy. In Central Nova, if she can pick up a half of the Liberal and a third of the NDP vote (not unimaginable) and Mackay otherwise holds his vote from 2006, she would only need a bit over 17% from the remaining Liberal and NDP votes and from Mackay to pull the upset. Likely? No. More likely than most people think? Yes.

She seems to have penned an alliance with next-door MP Bill Casey as well which certainly won't hurt.

For now, this seat leans Conservative hold, but a close eye should be kept on it.

Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley (was Conservative, currently Independent)
Bill Casey, first elected as a Progressive Conservative in 1988, is running 20 years later as an independent. The Conservative candidate will not likely do very well considering that the whole riding association is backing Casey for re-election. Former federal PC leader (that would be Progressive Canadian) Tracy Parsons is running for the Liberals.

Depending on the strength of the official Conservative candidate, it could be possible for Parsons to slip up the middle but it is more likely that Casey will win his sixth term. Likely independent hold/gain.

Halifax (currently New Democratic) *incumbent retiring
As far as I can tell, no candidate has been named here yet for any of the major parties other than the NDP's Alexis MacDonald who is known for nearly defeating Peter Mackay in her 2004 and 2006 election attempts.

This riding could probably go Liberal or NDP (or even Conservative) given the right candidates but owing to recent history and a head start, I'll rank this a leans NDP hold.

West Nova (currently Liberal)
All things being equal, this riding should be retained by Liberal Robert Thibault. He is a well regarded MP and the Conservative brand has been damaged by the Atlantic Accord. However, the Conservative candidate who lost by just 500 votes last time, a well regarded former provincial minister, is running again and the NDP holding at around 20% is challenging for the Liberals. For now, I think Thibault has the edge but it will be a nail-biter (again). Leans Liberal hold.

NS: CPC -1, Lib n/c, NDP n/c, Ind +1

Prince Edward Island battlegrounds

2008-09-08T19:24:00.001-03:00

Part of a series on Atlantic ridings

Cardigan (currently Liberal)
Lawrence MacAulay has tended to get elected and re-elected here very easily, however in 2000 when the popular Kevin MacAdam ran against him he won by less than 300 votes. That shows us that the right Tory could pull an upset here. The question is, is Sid McMullin the right Tory? For now, we'll say this is a likely Liberal hold but it is worth watching.

Egmont (currently Liberal) *incumbent retiring
Former senior Binns minister Gail Shea faces former (briefly in 1996) Liberal premier Keith Milligan. This should be an interesting race but for now, the edge would seem to be with Shea. Milligan didn't win the nomination at the meeting but was appointed after their preferred candidate stepped down, for this to be the story of a former premier is likely a sign that the Liberals are nervous about his ability to complete. Leans Conservative gain.

PE: CPC +1, Lib -1

Newfoundland & Labrador battlegrounds

2008-09-08T19:23:00.001-03:00

Part of a series on Atlantic ridings

Avalon (currently Conservative)
Danny Williams will loom very heavily over Conservative efforts in Atlantic Canada, but that loom will be total darkness in Newfoundland & Labrador. In Avalon we see the only incumbent Tory (Fabian Manning) to even bother to reoffer. Manning and Williams have a long history of disagreements and Williams will likely use his popularity to crush Manning. The fact that this is traditionally a Liberal riding will not help either. Likely Liberal gain.

Random—Burin—St. George's (currently Liberal) *incumbent retiring
Former PCer-turned-Liberal Bill Matthews is not seeking a fourth term. The Conservatives, thanks to Williams, but also thanks to the riding's history probably don't have a shot here. However, in 2004, the NDP ran Fr. Des McGrath who got a respectable 33% and second place. The NDP campaign will likely be putting some resouces into helping elect Jack Harris (more on that later) and if the NDP candidate can capitalize on McGrath's past showing they could have shot here. For now though, it seems a likely Liberal hold.

St. John's East (currently Conservative) *incumbent retiring
Former NDP MP and provincial NDP leader Jack Harris almost certainly has the upper hand here. The Tory MP is retiring, Harris will likely be the choice of Danny Williams and Harris is very well regarded across Newfoundland but particularly in St. John's. This seat is, at least, a lean NDP gain.

St. John's South—Mount Pearl (currently Conservative) *incumbent retiring
Is the third time the charm for Siobhán Coady? After running close races in 2004 and 2006, Coady is hoping for a ticket to Ottawa. The retirement of Loyola Hearn would probably been enough on its own but the anti-Harper campaign of Danny Williams should make it comfortable. I call this a likely Liberal gain.

NL: CPC -3, Lib +2, NDP +1

Atlantic Ridings to Watch

2008-09-08T19:22:00.004-03:00

Thanks everyone for stopping by the temporary home of NB taxpayer and I. I wanted to take a brief look at the region before delving back into a more New Brunswick-centric take on the election, which I began on my main blog a little while back.

So, I will do a quick blow-by-blow of the 32 ridings in Atlantic Canada. The first 17 are safe and are unlikely to change hands, while the latter 15 could be interesting. I'll just list the ~~boring~~safe seats and do a brief overview of those that have the potential to move.

Safe ridings

Acadie—Bathurst, NB (New Democratic)
Beauséjour, NB (Liberal)
Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor, NL (Liberal)
Charlottetown, PE (Liberal)
Cape Breton—Canso, NS (Liberal)
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS (Liberal)
Fundy Royal, NB (Conservative)
Halifax West, NS (Liberal)
Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte, NL (Liberal)
Kings—Hants, NS (Liberal)
Labrador (Liberal)
Malpeque, PE (currently Liberal)
New Brunswick Southwest (Conservative)
Sackville—Eastern Shore, NS (New Democratic)
South Shore—St. Margaret's, NS (Conservative)
Sydney—Victoria, NS (Liberal)
Tobique—Mactaquac, NB (Conservative)

So we're off to the races with Libs 11, CPC 4 and NDP 2.

This post was way too long, I am splitting it into four smaller posts on battlegrounds which you can find at:

My preliminary findings from the battlegrounds would be the following (vs. the last election) for the 32 Atlantic seats:

Lib 19 (-1)
CPC 8 (-1)
NDP 4 (+1)
Ind 1 (+1)

Political gaffe numero uno?

2008-09-08T18:37:00.001-03:00

Duceppe to court federalist. A gaffe no if, and or buts

This is clearly a desperate appeal (or a bonehead idea) by Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe:

Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe says federalists can vote safely for the Bloc without supporting Quebec sovereignty.
Duceppe says sovereignty will be decided in Quebec, not in Ottawa where the Bloc works.
The Bloc leader says there's nothing strange about the Bloc courting federalists, considering how other parties such as the Conservatives have been wooing nationalists.
Duceppe made the comments Monday in a riding where there is a tight race between the Bloc and the Conservatives.

Federalist voting for a separatist party. Come on, Gilles.

Bonehead Update

The response to every gaffe, misstep, half measure or knucklehead comment in North America??? Blame [or link to] Bush.

Campaign ads: what's old is new again

2008-09-08T17:46:00.000-03:00

Yes Mable, attacks ads do work

I see the Tories have rolled out their first real set of attack ads for the 2008 campaign. Two quick things here: 1.) like their first blitz of successful attack ads in 2007, these ones, which are being dubbed the triple threat, again do a great job of emphasizing the gamble voters could be taking if they chose Dion and his carbon tax scheme, and 2.) the statements made by Dion in these ads remind voters of the uncertainty of his presence via his half sentences which confuse many, most importantly the undecideds.

If I were to grade these three ads, I would give them an A- as I'm sure there are better ones to come. Like Gerry Nicholls, this one is my favorite of the three (as I love how it puts a pounding on Dion's shaky tax plan, which btw, he still has yet to clearly define):

Day 2: A few quick hitters that caught my eye

2008-09-08T15:29:00.000-03:00

Many of us Canadian political junkies can remember the deal (that wasn't really a deal) between Elizabeth May and Stephane Dion in which Dion agreed not to run a candidate against the Green Party leader in the Central Nova riding, which is currently held by Foreign Affairs Minister Peter MacKay. According to Dion, the deal "will offer to Canadians a gesture of cooperation in order to be sure that Canada will put together all its assets as a great nation." Well, fast forward about a year and a half from that day, and ironically we see that the Greens and Liberals are not running candidates in Tobique-Mactaquac, many ridings in New Brunswick, Brossard, Gatineau, Outremont and Lasalle Emard. Unfortunately, for them, it has nothing to do with political cooperation just disorganization.

Despite all the recent confusion for Dion nationally, he still holds a comfortable lead locally here in NB (an eight-point margin over the Conservatives) in a poll taken in early to mid-August by Bristol-Omnifacts Research. I might remind those of you who only read the Telegraph for your daily intake of news of two things: 1) there have been eight national polls release since then showing closer margins in Atlantic Canada between the Tories and Liberals and 2) this polling company is the same one that had Bernard Lord's Tories sitting at close to 52% to the Liberals 38% in the Miramichi ridings a week before the 2006 provincial election. I don't have to tell you how those numbers panned out in the 'chi.

I see the economy very well could be the ballot box issue this time around, according to David Akin. However, I'd advise you to take Akin's advice under consideration since, according to Coyne, there really isn't a ballot question at this point. I have to agree with Andrew on this one, especially here in New Brunswick where the ballot question could ultimately come down to a number of key issues.

Will Bill Casey's campaign spill over into NB?

2008-09-08T11:03:00.001-03:00

The politics of negative campaigns

I see that Bill Casey has launched his campaign bid to be re-elected in the Nova Scotia riding of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley as an independent. Now I won't get into the detailed logistics of that particular contest since it is obvious that Casey will not only most likely win on his popularity alone, he has the entire (and former) riding association and President on his side.

More importantly, I noticed in his press release that he has received an endorsement from the Green Party (and Elizabeth May) and NL premier Danny Williams (who said a year ago he would campaign for Casey due to the Atlantic accord fiasco). At first glance, I see such endorsements (and their possible anti-Harper rhetoric down the road) as a huge problem for Nova Scotia conservative candidates, not to mention, a potential obstacle for PEI and NB candidates as well. The negative rhetoric in Nova Scotia could ultimately spill over into ridings in Moncton, Miramichi, Saint John and Fredericton (where the races are very close between the Liberals and Conservatives).

Moreover, from what I hear, Scott Brison is still running unopposed by the conservatives in the Tory leaning riding of Kings-Hants. This obvious lack of organization by the Tories, coupled with Casey's pledge to work closely with him on environmental issues, could spring Brison free to campaign on behalf of other candidates (and parties) who oppose Harper. Not good. Although, I see senior Nova Scotia Tory Peter Mackay is already on the attack as he probably realizes this fact.

Let's just say, judging from the initial tone on day one, this has the roots to be a very nasty campaign in Atlantic Canada. Better buckle your seat belts folks!

A Blog for Election Junkies

2008-09-08T09:32:00.000-03:00

A bit about us

Welcome to New Brunswickers Paint the Political Picture. This blog will follow developments leading up to the October 14th contest, focusing specifically on issues, gaffs, speeches, video ads, (and everything in between) of all the candidates running in the New Brunswick region for the 2008 federal election. However, being the political junkies that we are, we may have a tendency to comment on the national scene from time to time as well. And for those who don't already know, my friend NB politico will be bringing the noise from the centre and I [NB taxpayer] from the right.

With that being said, let the games begin!